The real reason for the 100 dollar plunge: Trump unveils a big move!
News nuclear explosion (key point!)
3 AM raid: Trump signs the (GENIUS Act) (US stablecoin regulatory framework), seemingly beneficial but actually concealing dangers!
Short-term bearish: new regulations require stablecoin issuers to have 'bank-level reserves', many small institutions may not withstand! The market is worried about short-term liquidity contraction of stablecoins, panic selling ETH to exchange for dollars to survive!
Long-term big benefit: the implementation of regulations equals giving cryptocurrencies 'ID cards', giants like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock can finally enter the market compliantly! (But distant water cannot save a near fire!)
Technical follow-up
3685 bull track (top of the ascending channel) becomes a 'high-voltage grid', ETH fails to charge forward three times in a row (see the chart!), bull confidence collapses!
When the 3550 defense line (Fibonacci 38.2% support level) is broken, it triggers algorithmic stop-loss orders, causing an avalanche of 100 points!
Must watch tonight! Can 3600 be recovered? Keep a close eye on key signals!
Conditions for turning bullish (simple and straightforward version):
Whales have moved! Last night during the plunge, a dense number of large orders (single orders over 500,000 dollars) appeared in the 3580-3600 range, indicating that the main force is secretly catching falling knives!
3550 cannot be broken! This is the last defense line for bulls, it violently rebounded three times after hitting this position in the past week.
Bill panic digestion: if selling off in the early morning is an 'overreaction to news', tonight's buying may counterattack!
Iron Hawk's prediction:
If it stabilizes at 3550: tonight will surely surge to 3600, even touch 3650 (but 3685 pressure is huge, difficult to break the first time).
If it loses 3550: it will probe the psychological level of 3500, and the weekend will oscillate narrowly between 3500-3580 (low trading volume, reduced volatility).
Trump's bill assists, when will 4000 break? (Key point!)
Three major engines have been started:
Compliance benefits (core!)
The GENIUS Act makes stablecoin issuance transparent, USDT and USDC are safer, attracting large funds to buy ETH through stablecoins!
Mid-August is the turning point: after institutions complete compliance reviews, real money will enter the market!
Technical golden pit
Current plunge has formed a 'deep V bottom', similar to the trend in January 2024 (at that time ETH soared from 2200 to 4000!).
ETF expectation heats up
The SEC's final decision on BlackRock's ETH ETF on August 10, if approved, will cause a massive surge!
4000 dollar timetable:
First step (end of July): firmly hold 3500, accumulate strength to break through 3685 bull track!
Second step (mid-August): Bill funds + ETF expectations drive dual impacts, storming towards 3800!
Third step (early September): Institutions FOMO into buying, violently breaking through 4000!
Retail investors' emergency operation checklist
Tonight's action:
Bottom-fishing near 3550 (position ≤ 30%), set stop loss at 3520 (must run if broken!)
Reduce half position at rebound to 3620, keep half position to bet on 3650!
Medium to long-term layout:
Buy in batches below 3500 (increase position by 10% every 50 dollars drop), lying win in August's main upward wave!
Danger warning:
If we see a volume drop below 3500 this weekend, stop loss and wait, buy again at 3450!
Explosive golden sentence:
"The market crash from the bill is fake, the washout and absorption is real! ETH's 4000 dollars will only be delayed, not absent!"
Top support is in place! Pay attention to Iron Hawk, Iron Hawk only lacks one thing: a crazy ambition like yours!
$ETH
