The current DOGE market is caught in an extreme tug-of-war between bulls and bears. A 13% single-day increase seems fierce, but with record open interest, the market is filled with both excitement and caution - is this wave of increase the starting point of a new round of market, or the final celebration of capital speculation?

Technical 'danger signals' and key points of contention

From the technical chart, DOGE is currently priced at 0.244 USD, closely sticking to the Bollinger upper band resistance at 0.249 USD. The contention at this position is particularly critical: historical data shows that when DOGE approaches the Bollinger upper band with three consecutive K-lines, there is an 80% probability of a pullback, especially in the context of excessive short-term gains, where bullish momentum is likely to be concentrated and then exhausted.


The lower level of 0.240 USD is another life-or-death line. As the lower edge of the recent oscillation range, if this position is effectively broken, it is likely to trigger chain stop losses, causing panic selling among retail investors and further amplifying the decline.
The MACD indicator is also releasing subtle signals: although the DIF line is still above the DEA line, the red energy bar has shrunk to 0.00128, indicating that bullish momentum is weakening. Once the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross, the technical pullback signal will become clearer, and short-term downward pressure may intensify.

The immense open interest 'double-edged sword': celebration or trap?

What is even more alarming is the abnormal news front - the total open contracts of DOGE across the network has surged to 16.24 billion, amounting to approximately 4 billion USD at current prices, setting a historical high with a monthly increase of 48%.


Such a level of open interest is often a 'double-edged sword': on one hand, it indicates extremely high capital attention and fierce divergence between bulls and bears; on the other hand, immense open interest means the risks of 'longs killing longs' or 'shorts killing shorts' have greatly increased. Looking back at history, whenever DOGE reaches similar peaks in open interest, there is a high probability of violent fluctuations within a week, as seen in the 35% crash from its highs in January this year.
On-chain data further reveals the market's differentiation: retail investors are madly buying in during the 13% increase, but the top 10 whale addresses are quietly adjusting their positions, with some addresses increasing their short positions. This 'contrary operation between major players and retail investors' is often a precursor to market reversal.

Market projection: two possible directions

The market from tonight to tomorrow may face two critical choices:


  • If it can strongly break through the upper Bollinger band resistance at 0.249 USD, and volume continues to expand, it may open up new upward space; however, considering the current high open interest and dwindling momentum, this probability is relatively low (about 20%).

  • If it falls below the support level of 0.240 USD, and the MACD forms a death cross, panic selling may emerge, with a short-term target potentially pointing directly to 0.188 USD (the lower edge of the previous oscillation platform). The probability of this risk occurring is higher (about 80%).


Risk warnings in operations are particularly important: if the closing price of the K-line at 8 PM tonight is below 0.240 USD, it is advisable to decisively cut losses and exit to avoid being impacted by a potential crash.
This wave of DOGE's market is essentially a struggle between capital sentiment and technical aspects. The immense open interest is both a proof of popularity and a warning of risk - in the crypto market, the crazier the moment, the more one must uphold the bottom line of risk control. For more detailed changes in points and strategy adjustments, please follow subsequent analysis to find your own rhythm amid the fluctuations.#GENIUS稳定币法案