Hello crypto traders and investors! 👋 This time we focus on a very interesting asset: PEPE. Last week was full of surprises, and we will dissect it using the lens of Smart Money Concepts (SMC) on the 1-hour timeframe. Ready to gain actionable insights? Let's dive in!
Last Week's Macro Market Conditions: Unstoppable Bullish!
The week of July 12 to 19, 2025, was marked by extraordinary bullish momentum across the cryptocurrency market. The main driver was unprecedented institutional demand through Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products. This is not just sentiment but significant capital flows changing market dynamics.
Key Asset Performance
Bitcoin ($BTC ): This king of crypto reached a new all-time high, breaking the $110,000 mark and even reaching $122,379.00 on July 14, with some reports noting a peak at $123,000. This is a phase of 'price discovery' for Bitcoin, where traditional resistance becomes less relevant.
Ethereum ($ETH ): Not to be outdone, Ethereum surpassed $3,030 and reached $3481.88 on July 18, driven by the successful launch of Ethereum spot ETFs. Analysts even project that ETH could test $15,000 by year-end if this trend continues.
Global Market Capitalization: The total cryptocurrency market capitalization surpassed $3.81 trillion in July, signaling a 'new bullish leg' for analysts. Overall market sentiment is 'strong risk-on.'
Significant Macro & Crypto News Affecting the Market
US Economic Indicators: The rise in US consumer credit and the release of the minutes from the May FOMC meeting are significant. Discussions on interest rates and inflation from the FOMC can affect Bitcoin's trajectory.
Digital Asset Tax Policy: The digital asset tax policy hearing on July 9 is also expected to shape market sentiment. This indicates that crypto is no longer an isolated asset but increasingly integrated with the traditional financial system.
Post-Halving Bitcoin Dynamics: The reduction in the issuance of new coins post-April 2024 halving continues to be a bullish catalyst, contributing to BTC price growth of over 96% since the halving.
Institutional Adoption: Traditional financial giants like Charles Schwab Corp. and BBVA announced plans to add Bitcoin and Ethereum trading to their platforms, indicating broader adoption.
Main Focus This Week: $PEPE (1-Hour Timeframe)
Although meme coin sentiment was generally bullish last week, PEPE's performance tells a different story, highlighting the importance of asset-specific technical analysis. PEPE showed clear volatility, with strong bullish expansion in the first half of the week, followed by a sharp bearish reversal in the second half.
Here is an in-depth analysis using Smart Money Concepts (SMC) for PEPE on the 1-hour timeframe:
Market Structure and Trends (PEPE)
Start of Week (July 12-17): PEPE began a strong bullish trend, marked by the consistent formation of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). Several bullish Break of Structure (BOS) are clearly visible, confirming upward momentum. For instance, after a low around $0.00001160 on July 12, the price broke above the previous swing highs at $0.00001200, $0.00001250, and $0.00001300.
Peak and Reversal (July 17): This bullish trend peaked significantly around $0.00001420 on July 17. Shortly after, a crucial bearish Change of Character (CHoCH) occurred. This was marked by the price decisively breaking below the last significant higher low that supported the bullish structure. This clearly indicates a shift of market control from buyers to sellers.
End of Week (July 17-19): After the CHoCH, PEPE entered a different bearish market structure, characterized by consistently forming lower lows (LL) and lower highs (LH). Several bearish Break of Structure (BOS) reinforced this momentum, as the price continued its decline towards the end of the analysis period.
Key Levels & SMC Zones (PEPE)
Bullish Order Block (OB):
Significant bullish OB identified around $0.00001250 - $0.00001270. This zone acts as a strong demand area and provides reliable support during the bullish phase.
A smaller bullish OB formed around $0.00001310 - $0.00001320, providing temporary support before the final push to the weekly peak.
Bearish Order Block (OB):
A prominent bearish OB formed at the peak of the rally, around $0.00001400 - $0.00001420. This is a critical supply zone where the price started its sharp reversal after the liquidity sweep, likely where smart money distributed their long positions.
The next bearish OB formed around $0.00001350 - $0.00001370 during the bearish movement, acting as a resistance level.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) / Imbalance:
Several bullish FVGs were created during the rise, particularly on July 14 and 16.
A significant and large bearish FVG was created during the sharp decline on July 17, immediately after the CHoCH, spanning from around $0.00001380 to $0.00001320. This FVG has not been fully mitigated and is likely to act as strong resistance or a 'price magnet' if a retracement occurs.
Liquidity Pools:
A clear liquidity sweep occurred just above the previous high around $0.00001400 on July 17, just before the CHoCH and bearish reversal. This is a classic smart money maneuver to target retail stop losses.
The nearest target for the ongoing bearish movement is the low around $0.00001250.
If $0.00001250 is breached, the next significant target is the low set on July 12, around $0.00001160.
Traditional Technical Patterns (Optional)
The price movement around the peak on July 17 can be interpreted as the early stage of an 'M' (Double Top) pattern or the right shoulder of a newly emerging Head and Shoulders pattern. If the price continues to drop below the neckline, this pattern will reinforce the bearish outlook already indicated by the SMC CHoCH.
Volume (PEPE)
The early bullish movement (July 12-14) was accompanied by increased trading volume, confirming the strength of the upward trend. Volume spikes were observed during significant BOS events, indicating genuine buying pressure.
The critical CHoCH on July 17 was accompanied by a noticeable increase in selling volume, clearly confirming the shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The subsequent bearish BOS also showed increased volume.
Volume acts as a crucial confirmation filter for SMC. High volume accompanying BOS or CHoCH validates structural shifts, indicating genuine institutional participation.
Potential Opportunities/Signals (SMC Based) for PEPE
Based on the bearish market structure of PEPE formed, here are the opportunities and signals that can be considered:
Potential Short Entry (Retracement to Premium Zone): If PEPE retraces upwards towards the identified bearish Order Block around $0.00001350 - $0.00001370 (premium zone), and shows clear signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns or low volume during the retest), a high-probability short entry may be considered.
Targeting Liquidity Pools (Bearish Continuation): The nearest target for the ongoing bearish momentum is the liquidity pool at the previous significant swing low around $0.00001250. A decisive break below this level will open the path to the next liquidity pool at $0.00001160.
Confirmation of Bearish Continuation: If the price breaks below the current low around $0.00001200 (as observed on July 19), confirming a new bearish BOS, this will be a strong signal to continue the downward trend.
Reversal Signal (Waiting for Bullish CHoCH for Long): For long opportunities, it is crucial to wait for a clear and confirmed bullish CHoCH. This means the price decisively breaks above a significant lower high established during the current bearish trend. After this, confirmation of a new bullish market structure (e.g., bullish BOS) will be necessary.
FVG as Magnet/Resistance: The significant bearish FVG formed on July 17 (around $0.00001380 to $0.00001320) remains unmitigated. This can act as a strong 'magnet' for the price if it attempts a significant retracement, and if the price shows rejection in this zone, it may offer another potential short entry opportunity.
The Importance of SMC: SMC provides specific price levels (Order Block, FVG, liquidity pools) and structural confirmations (BOS, CHoCH) to determine entry points, set stop losses (invalidations), and identify profit targets. This level of detail is crucial for professional risk management in highly volatile markets like PEPE.
Conclusion & Outlook Ahead
The price movement of PEPE/USDT last week is a perfect example of how, even in a broader bullish market, individual assets, especially volatile meme coins, can exhibit sharp reversals driven by SMC. The short-term outlook for PEPE on the 1-hour timeframe remains bearish, with lower liquidity pools likely being the target.
Traders should prioritize identifying confirmed bullish CHoCH and the next bullish Order Block for potential long entries, rather than trying to 'catch a falling knife.' Macroeconomic integration also means that broader economic shifts can affect PEPE's trajectory.
#PEPEUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #WeeklyMarketHighlights
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto trading involves high risk. Always do your own research and consider your financial conditions before making investment decisions.
