"When the K-line crosses the lower Bollinger band, the bulls' helmets are clanging"—last night's bloody battlefield of ETH's thousand-point draw once again confirms the iron law of the crypto circle: the fireworks of news will eventually extinguish, while the scars of technical analysis will forever be etched on the chart.
News aspect: The collision of policies and capital.
(GENIUS bill) implemented: Trump signs stablecoin regulatory bill (White House, July 19), USDT on-chain issued 510 million in a single day.
4 trillion market cap trap: After the total crypto market cap broke records, whale addresses are densely hanging short positions at 3550-3600 (data source: Rocket Community).
Federal Reserve shows signs of division: Governor Waller refuses to discuss July's stance, Goolsbee states 'future interest rates may drop sharply', causing leveraged funds to panic.
Technical aspect: The Bollinger Bands hide deadly traps.
Death triangle reveals itself: Price continues to press the lower Bollinger band (3502) while the MACD double lines death cross again below the zero axis.
Volume code: A moderate transaction of 18,212, combined with a 43,000 ETH support order at the 3500 level on-chain, suggests that the main force is building an 'entrapment trap'.
Deadly threshold: If the weekly close falls below 3502, a cliff-like market from 3650 to 3200 in June may repeat.
The tycoon's perspective.
Last night, Trump's CBDC ban was supposed to be good for ETH, but the main force reversed and smashed the market to harvest the bulls—this is very similar to BlackRock's 'good news sell-off' script on the day of the BTC ETF in January 2024. Be cautious now:
The inertia of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' after policy implementation.
The deterrent effect of Vitalik's 50,000 ETH transfer to the exchange.
The stablecoin bill may withdraw liquidity from the ETH ecosystem.
On-chain monitoring shows a market maker accumulating 420 million USD in put options at 3550, resonating with the lower Bollinger band at 3502. Will tonight's long-short struggle trigger 'Gamma squeeze'? Follow me for real-time tracking of this on-chain powder keg!
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