This is a very critical market signal. Let's interpret the potential impact of Trump's remarks from several dimensions: macro trends, market sentiment, and cryptocurrency market reactions:
Event Review:
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, Trump publicly stated on July 19 (GMT+8):
"Major trade agreements will be announced soon, and some letters may be sent out today, possibly involving tariffs of 35%-40%. This will be a sign of 'agreement reached.'"
1. Macro Perspective: Is this a signal or a form of pressure?
Trump's remarks seem to suggest an "agreement reached," but it actually resembles a negotiation strategy:
Once the letters regarding "high tariffs" are issued, it indicates he is actively setting negotiation terms.
This usually has a short-term negative impact on traditional markets related to international trade (such as the S&P, Dow Jones, and the U.S. Dollar Index).
Especially if aimed at China or the European Union, market risk aversion may rise in the short term.
2. Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market: Negative for Traditional → Positive for Digital Assets?
The cryptocurrency market typically reacts to such "global trade frictions" in two ways:
1) Risk aversion logic drives short-term increases in BTC and ETH:
If U.S. stocks are under pressure, funds will partially shift to "non-sovereign assets."
Bitcoin is often seen as "digital gold," and its short-term risk-hedging attributes will increase.
Mainstream coins like ETH and SOL, which have high correlation, may also rebound in reaction.
2. Long-term impact is directional:
If the trade war intensifies, inflationary pressures may resurface, increasing uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies.
Once the market anticipates further easing or liquidity increases in the future, the cryptocurrency market will respond in advance.
3. Short-term Trading Suggestions (for reference only):
BTC/ETH Long Position Holders: Can continue to hold in the short term, watching key support levels (e.g., BTC 58,000, ETH 3,500).
Contract Traders: Volatility will increase; be mindful of low leverage operations + set take-profit and stop-loss levels.
Pay attention to unusual movements in assets: XAU (Gold) and USDT premium data, which may provide early signals of risk aversion.
Trump's rhetoric is not entirely negative; it more so releases a signal of "escalating competition."
For traditional markets, it's a shock; for the cryptocurrency market, it may be a positive influence,
especially in the current macroeconomic instability, BTC-type assets may possess stronger capital-absorbing properties.
