Altseason intensifies: Top 4 signals from analysts to know when to take profits
The crypto market capitalization reached a record $4 trillion in July. At the same time, Bitcoin Dominance fell to 61.5%, the lowest level since April. These are clear signs that, according to analysts, confirm the official start of the altseason.
The important question now is when investors should exit the market. Based on ideas from experienced traders, this article outlines several key factors to observe.
Investors have begun to see profits in July
Most altcoin investors who started buying in June are likely seeing profits now. This is because the market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) has increased by 44% since then, reaching $1.5 trillion.
Glassnode's proprietary indicator confirms the capital rotation towards altcoins starting in early July:
"The Glassnode Altseason Indicator was triggered on July 9. This means that stablecoin supplies are expanding, capital is flowing into BTC and ETH, and simultaneously, the market capitalization of altcoins is increasing — a structural environment conducive to capital rotation," reported Glassnode.
Today, CryptoBubbles data shows a green market. Many altcoins have risen between 10% and over 20%. However, history shows that the altseason of late 2024 ended in sharp declines.
Many altcoins fell between 50% and 90%. Many investors did not act quickly and watched their portfolios sink further into losses. That’s why identifying when to take profits is as crucial as identifying when the altseason begins.
The simplest and most widely used signal is the Altcoin Season Index. This index is commonly used to identify entry points. But when it reaches its upper limit, it also acts as a warning for the overall market.
At the time of writing, Coinglass reports that the index is at 49. When it reaches 70 to 100 points, investors are advised to take profits:
"The Altcoin Season Index is rising, and the market capitalization of altcoins has significantly increased in recent days. When the index surpasses 70, it is time to sell your altcoins. Right?" — reported Coinglass.
For other investors, technical analysis of the altcoin market capitalization (TOTAL3) serves as a guide. Analysts like Peter Brandt and Greeny believe TOTAL3 is forming a cup and handle pattern. Using the measurement theory of that pattern, TOTAL3 could reach a target of $2 trillion.
That could be a key point where altcoin holders should consider exiting. Some investors follow the capital flow cycle to identify when the season might end. For example, investor NekoZ believes the market is now entering the second phase of a four-phase cycle:
"ETH has begun to outperform BTC in terms of returns, meaning we have entered the second phase of the altseason," said NekoZ.
In this framework:
Phase 1 is Bitcoin outperforming.
Phase 2 is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin.
Phase 3 sees a rally of large-cap altcoins.
Phase 4 is when small-cap altcoins and memecoins rise, often signaling the final stage of the altseason.
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Many observers closely monitor this progression. The last factor to consider is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). In July, BTC.D decreased from 65.5% to 61%, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2024.
Analysts, observing the trend lines of previous cycles, believe that altseason may continue until BTC.D falls to 48% to 50%. Each investor likely has their own strategy.
However, historical experience shows that holding altcoins for too long often leads to losses, unlike Bitcoin, which tends to recover better. As the market overheats, the risks increase even more.
