In recent days, Ethereum (ETH) has awakened after months of suffering, with the price finally moving above $3,500.
But in reality, there is much more to what is happening now.
Analysis of Ethereum (ETH) Price
With the Trump-trade at the end of 2024, the price of ETH managed to return to $4,000 (it should be remembered that the all-time high is just below $4,900).
Unfortunately, however, it was unable to maintain that round figure, and by mid-December it began to decline.
That initial decline stopped for a few weeks around $3,300, but starting from early February, a kind of crash was triggered that even brought it below $1,500 in April.
The really worrying thing is that the Trump-trade in November had started from $2,400, so the April crash seemed to have really sunk it.
However, in the end, it was just a strong temporary correction, so much so that already shortly before mid-May it had returned just above those $2,400 from which the mini-speculative bubble due to the Trump-trade had started to inflate.
Until July 7, it then remained more or less there, around $2,500.
The boom of ETH
Tuesday, July 8, a new phase began for the price of Ethereum.
First of all, in just three days it returned around the $3,000 mark. It should be noted that this threshold had in fact been the bottom of 2024 before the July drop following the launch of the ETF su ETH spot on the US exchanges.
Therefore, not only in May of this year did it recover the level prior to the mini-bubble of the Trump-trade, but in July it also recovered the level prior to the launch of the ETFs.
At that point, in theory, it could have also stopped, but instead starting from last Tuesday, July 15, a new bull run began.
Thanks to this small boom, it first moved above $3,400, and then even above $3,600.
The current price level of Ethereum is in line with that of two peaks reached in the last three years, and not much lower than the $3,800 which were the two peaks of 2024 prior to the one generated by the Trump-trade.
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However, there is a strong difference between what happened in November and what is happening now.
First of all, the rise in November up to $4,000 was caused by the inflation of a mini-bubble, whereas now there do not seem to be any signs of a bubble inflating.
It is true that the recent rise is also very fast, but it seems more like a recovery of past levels rather than a surge towards new heights.
But the most important thing is the fact that the altseason index of CMC is rising relatively slowly, at least until yesterday.
In fact, from July 8 to 17, it moved from level 22 to level 38, with a rise that was not particularly rapid, nor particularly wide.
It should be remembered that this index, which ranges from zero to one hundred, up to 25 indicates a Bitcoin season, and beyond 75 indicates an altseason. Therefore, on July 8th it still indicated a full Bitcoin season, while now it is rising towards the neutral zone.
To tell the truth, today it jumped to 50 points, that is, with a wide and fast rise, but since the past days, it was already understood that this could have been the natural landing point of such a rise.
“`html The dominance of Bitcoin “`
In fact, there is a significant drop in the dominance of Bitcoin.
Although it actually remains very high, above 61%, in recent days it has dropped almost suddenly from 64.5% to 61.6%.
The annual peak was reached at the end of June at almost 66%, a level not seen since January 2021, but despite an almost constant rise that began in January 2023, the one in recent days might already seem like a trend reversal.
If the altseason index remains at the current levels, or well above 25 points, it could indeed be possible for a continuation of the decline in BTC dominance.
The forecasts: are we really close to altseason?
Now the question that many are asking is whether we are heading towards an altseason or not.
Certainly with an altseason index at level 50, we have not yet entered altseason.
However, generally when this index grows from Bitcoin season to a neutral zone, it doesn’t take long to rise above the 75 mark, indicating the start of an altseason.
However, it must be said that it might be a bit early for a true altseason to be triggered, so much so that a scenario of a hypothetical mini-altseason, like the one in November, seems more plausible.
The fact is that several analysts do not see a possible significant correction in the price of ETH in the short term, so in such a climate it is not at all unlikely that Bitcoin’s dominance will continue to fall, and that the altseason index will continue to rise.
It is precisely the spot ETFs on ETH that indicate a very strong interest from traditional markets at this moment towards Ethereum, thanks also and especially to the approval in the USA of new specific regulations regarding criptovalute.
Just the day before yesterday, the largest daily inflow ever was recorded on spot ETH ETFs, and this likely also indicates a shift in the trend of Ethereum’s price in the markets.
Despite this, however, the $10,000 still seem very far away, even though both the $4,000 of November and the $4,900 of the all-time high of 2021 are starting to get closer.
