Policy green lights cannot stop the options nuclear explosion; when the whale shakes, the retail investors tremble three times!
Today's BTC performance at the 120,000 level is a technical reflection of the struggle between bullish and bearish news.

News: The three major powder kegs of the plunge

Whale's position reduction ignites the fuse
AguilaTrades, a contract whale with 20x leverage, precisely reduced its position by 189 BTC (worth $25.9 million) when BTC surged to 120,998 in the morning. Although the total position still reaches $500 million, this action directly triggered a sell-off from algorithmic following orders. Just like when Jump Trading reduced its holdings during the Solana ecosystem collapse last year, the whale's fingertip maneuver is enough to capsize a small boat.

Precise explosion of $5.8 billion options expiry
At 4 PM today (UTC+8), 41,000 BTC options are due for settlement — traders need to push the price below the liquidation line to harvest the bulls. Remember on June 30, the quarterly settlement day, BTC also plummeted 6% in one hour; this time the traders are using the same tactic: creating panic with news of whales reducing their positions and launching a 'targeted explosion' one hour before options expiry, with a minimum spike down to 118,395.

Policy benefits turn into 'cutting knife'
Although the U.S. House of Representatives passed three major cryptocurrency bills (especially the GENIUS bill is favorable in the long term), the short term is playing out the classic script of 'buy the expectation and sell the fact.' Just like last year when Hong Kong passed the spot ETF, BTC fell 8%, today institutions sold off after the good news materialized: BitMEX data shows that 15 minutes after the bill was passed, institutional sell orders surged by 300%, forming a 'policy vacuum period' bull trap.

Technical analysis: Diagram of the plunge password

Accurate sniper shot at the resistance level: When hitting 120,998 in the morning (the upper band of Bollinger Bands in the chart), trading volume suddenly shrank (the VOL bars in the chart shortened), exposing insufficient upward momentum and laying the groundwork for a pullback.

MACD death cross: At 1 PM, the 1-hour MACD white line crossed below the yellow line, while the histogram turned from red to green (in the indicator area of the chart), issuing a textbook-level bearish signal.

Volume long shadow sets the tone: The 2 PM candlestick broke through the 119,500 support level (the purple moving average in the chart) with volume, combined with the options expiry time window, triggering a chain of stop-loss orders.

Tycoon's viewpoint: The current position can 'pull teeth from a tiger's mouth'

Case verification: Referring to the $5 billion options settlement on May 20, BTC violently rebounded 8% after oscillating for 3 hours below the maximum pain point (then at 108,000). Currently, at the 117,300 pin position, there are $470 million limit buy orders (Bybit heat map data), forming strong support.

The 'settlement smoke has not dissipated, and new actions emerge on Capitol Hill at dawn — the GENIUS bill that Trump is about to sign hides secrets! Want to know how traders use the bill's details for a second round of wash trading? Follow me, tonight I will dissect the golden pit in the regulatory storm!

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