1. Mainstream Coin Market and Bull-Bear Discrepancy
Bitcoin (BTC)
Intensifying Bull-Bear Game:
Bearish Views: Some analysts believe the rise is nearing its end and warn of a deep correction. Accounts like Shendu predict a retracement to $108,000 (last year's historical transaction dense area), while some analysts point out that if it does not break through the $128,300-$125,000 range, it may drop to $90,000. 5 9 16 17 19
Bullish Views: Some analysts believe that the pullback is an entry opportunity, with $114,000 being a key support, and the medium to long-term trend not having reversed. 63 70
Current Volatility Range: $116,000-$122,000, need to pay attention to CME gap filling and liquidity raids. 1443
Ethereum (ETH)
Strong Leading Gains: Breakthrough of $3400 achieves mid-line target, some views bullish to $3500-$4000, with noticeable capital inflow. 36 55 102
Independent Market: Technical breakthrough of long-term trend line, siphoning off Bitcoin funds, may drive the altcoin season. 4889
Other Mainstream Coins
SOL: Fluctuating in the $158-$168 range, breaking through $169 may challenge $180-$185. 29 38 79
XRP: Continues to set historical highs, daily increase of 4%. 93 97
2. Market Hotspots and Regulatory Trends
US Stablecoin Bill (Genius Bill)
Trump promotes the bill's passage, claiming that stablecoins will make the US 'leap years ahead of China', aiming to consolidate US dollar hegemony and boost demand for US bonds. 8
After the bill is passed, stablecoins may become a new battleground in the China-US game, and Hong Kong (Stablecoin Regulation) also came into effect on August 1. 8 74
Industry Controversies
Wall Street vs Crypto Circle: Trump supports the crypto circle's claim to currency issuance rights, while Wall Street maintains the bank system monopoly. 8
Critical Voices: Dogecoin founder Palmer criticizes the crypto circle being controlled by a 'rich cartel', exploiting ordinary people through a 'get rich quick' funnel.
3. Risk Alerts and Operational Strategies
Short-term Risk Signals
Bitcoin open interest approaches historical highs, increasing the likelihood of a deep correction. 17 53
Ethereum is strong, but beware of the risk of false breakdown below the neckline (around $2850). 7 56
Divergence in Investment Strategies
Conservatives: Observe more, act less, waiting for clear structural signals. 9 11
Radicals:
Altcoin Opportunities: Pay attention to small-cap coins like PEPE, NEIRO, MOODENG breaking out. 30 60 71
Mainstream Coin Pullback Strategy: ETH pullback to $3380-$3400 for long positions, BTC pay attention to $114,000 support. 55 96
4. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Capital Rotation: Bitcoin funds withdraw and shift to Ethereum and altcoins (such as SOL, XRP). 16 39
Market Differentiation:
Large-cap altcoins (such as AAVE, MKR) increase by about 20%, while small-cap coins (in the tens of millions) surge rapidly but carry high risks. 64 109
Institutional funds dominate Bitcoin, retail investors shift to altcoin speculation. 89
Core Conclusion
Bitcoin faces a directional choice, $120,000 is a key watershed, falling below $114,000 may trigger a deep correction.
Ethereum's strong market may continue, but beware of technical overbought pullbacks.
Signs of the altcoin season are emerging, funds are rotating towards SOL, XRP, and other second-tier mainstream and small-cap coins, but beware of project-side selling pressure. 64 109
Policy Risk: The US stablecoin bill could reshape the industry landscape, and attention should be paid to the impact of regulatory dynamics on market sentiment. 8 91
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$BTC $ETH
