Author JoshuaDeuk
This weekend, with more time for reflection, I want to share some thoughts on the market.
I believe the overall directional trend of the cryptocurrency market will not become apparent until after September. Considering the macroeconomic resistance, summer liquidity constraints, and quarterly position adjustments, the real market dynamics will only start after market participants return from the August holidays. From recent market activity, most altcoin rallies were driven by short squeezes. Traders were reacting to previous rebounds, chasing momentum—but this time there were no real long-term holders. Most people had already been battered by the market previously. As expected, the vast majority of sharply rising tokens subsequently experienced equally sharp declines.
Ethereum unexpectedly rebounds, with the hardest-hit sectors, such as AI and coins, leading this rebound. On the other hand, tokens with real use cases, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms show resilience—not only performing more steadily during downturns but also recovering faster. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a coin, its structure is completely different. From this, we can extract the following insights:
1. Bitcoin demand is real and persistent
Traditional capital is gradually entering through ETFs and other regulated channels.
The nature of the capital supporting BTC is completely different from previous cycles. This is why a massive BTC liquidation is unlikely to occur unless triggered by macro events.
2. The differentiation within altcoins will intensify
Ultimately, capital will flow back into altcoins—but it won’t be across the board. Only tokens with clear utility and real use cases are likely to attract these inflows. That’s why I believe Ethereum will outperform Solana. The clarity of regulation, the growing decentralized finance usage, deflationary structure, and staking demand together create a strong flywheel effect. Moreover, since ETH has long failed to meet expectations, it still has marginal buyers waiting off-exchange.
3. Venture capital-backed tokens have structural risks
Token unlocks will continue to put pressure on price trends. In a liquidity-scarce environment, ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors limits the upside potential. That’s why I think tokens that are overvalued when listed on centralized exchanges are not a good choice for the future. Tokens in the Cosmos ecosystem, in particular, face ongoing selling pressure due to their validator reward structure.
4. MeMe has structural advantages
With structural advantages, no venture capital unlocks, fair launches, and 100% based on attention. This is pure speculation mechanism—just like it worked in the first cycle.
But I believe this phase is coming to an end.
The token generation event of Pump.fun and the launch of Trump coin mark the peak of coin attention. After that, interest in coins began to fade. Even in the April rebound, SOL’s performance was not as good as ETH’s—if everyone already holds SOL, when the momentum for coins fades, who will be the marginal buyer?
Some coins may still perform well, especially those that have gained popularity outside of crypto Twitter, like those that have surged through charm figures like MURAD on TikTok or Instagram. These might still bring asymmetric wealth effects. But the era of 'cute dog cat coins' as alpha is over. Only coins with strong stories and strong market recognition—things people can collectively believe in—have real speculative value.
Ironically, the fatigue and skepticism towards venture capital-backed tokens have opened the door for fair launch Web2/3 projects, which will become the next wave of wealth generation opportunities.
Keeta is a great example. But to seize these opportunities, you need to be active on-chain. When information asymmetry exists, big opportunities always emerge. Once everyone knows something, it no longer offers a return.
This is why I spend more time closely monitoring on-chain markets. The success of Keeta has ignited the desire to find the 'next Keeta,' and capital begins to chase similar fair-launch altcoin narratives. Just like that guy Bonk who made over 10 digits of wealth through trading coins—attention guides capital.
5. Next market trends
So, if meme coins are no longer where the opportunities lie... what’s next?
My view: The combination of AI and cryptocurrency.
If you have been following my timeline, you will know that most of my operations in this cycle—after the early SOL and venture capital-backed tokens—have focused on coins and AI.
Just like the DeFi summer, most early AI projects failed after the hype. But truly utility-driven projects are quietly building in this bear market. We have already seen some of these projects emerging on-chain.
As the profits from coins dwindle, attention will naturally shift to new narratives. AI, with its clear utility, is well-suited to become the next destination.
Many AI x Crypto projects are fair launches, echoing the narrative of Keeta.
This is why I spend time researching and positioning in this field during quiet weeks. There’s no need to rush to build a full position now—but I believe that if the market experiences a strong rally again, this field will harbor the greatest asymmetric opportunities.
