Currently, it’s basically every couple of days there’s a new high, but the rise in the main coin is not due to strong buying but because no one is willing to sell. In simple terms, the circulating chips are becoming fewer, and the number of sellers is decreasing, so don’t think about a major drop for the time being.

Looking at the exchange flow data from the past year, more and more main coins are being withdrawn, and there aren’t many coins left on the exchanges. Because those who really want to sell are almost gone, even if there's some fluctuation, it won’t create big waves unless systemic risks arise.

That said, this week can still be looked forward to. CPI, PPI, and retail sales are all on the agenda, especially CPI, with the market expecting quite a downturn. If the data comes in cold, the expectations for a rate cut in September may be dashed.

There will definitely be some fluctuations in the short term, but it will only last a few days; July and August still have some crucial data ahead, and it might even pull back. One more thing to note is that the fluctuations over the weekend are a bit strange.

From 8 AM to 6 PM is considered the Asian session, and at night is the US session, and you'll find something interesting. The Asian session steadily rises, while the US session crashes. Isn’t this the familiar feeling of 2023? Some are buying on one platform while Coinbase is selling.

Speaking of the market, many people see the price high and automatically assume it will drop. But why not think about how last October it went from 70K to 100K, did it retrace to 80K in between? Did it retrace to 90K? No! At most it touched 88666 briefly, then it directly shot up to 100K!

Now this trend is exactly like the wave from last year when it went from 70K to 110K, the overall trend is upward, the acceleration hasn't even started yet, and you’re shorting? You must be crazy.

Although the main coin isn’t in trouble, the altcoins need to be cautious. Right now, altcoins rely on sentiment + liquidity, but the problem is that neither of them are present. If there is a real retracement, it will be the altcoins that collapse first, not the main coin.

The current structure still belongs to the mid-stage of a bullish trend, and the continuation pattern is very stable. Technically, it’s similar to the weekly lines in February and November 2024, which are halfway through the trend and not at the top. But the trading volume is indeed not keeping up, and the spot premium is also lacking.

So if it rises to the weekly overbought line around 134431, and the momentum doesn’t keep up, then it might really be a top. But as long as it doesn’t drop below 102394, the logic of a bull market still holds. Left-side predictions are just guessing long or short, while right-side following the trend is reasonable.

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