As early as April this year, I concluded that ETH had completed its bottoming process and the washout was almost over. Although the overall market is still in a low-level consolidation, ETH's performance has actually been quite strong, having risen by more than double from its lowest point. And don't forget, the funds for the ETH spot ETF are continuously flowing in, backed by a large number of institutions and companies ramping up their investments. Some have even compared the development path of ETH to that of MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings.

When I made that judgment back in April, I cited several examples of people cutting losses and exiting, some of whom decided to fully liquidate based on on-chain data. I can't say they were irrational, as there were indeed some data points that looked quite frightening at the time.

For instance, after Ethereum completes the Cancun upgrade in 2024, the Gas fees on the mainnet (L1) will significantly decrease; by 2025, Uniswap chose to migrate from L1 to L2, which almost caused a cliff-like drop in activity on Ethereum L1. Gas revenues plummeted from previously being second only to Tron, to falling out of the top ten entirely. And more critically, Ethereum's actual annual inflation rate surged from around 0.2% to over 0.7%, more than tripling.

From an on-chain perspective, Ethereum's activity and data are still declining, with no clear signs of reversal. However, investing is not something that can be accurately done solely based on data models. Sometimes, it also requires a bit of intuition and experience.

If you decisively liquidate when on-chain indicators start to deteriorate, and then wait for ETH to drop below $1500, only to suddenly ignore the data and decisively buy the dip, this kind of contradictory operation is something 95% of people can't achieve. Because human nature finds it difficult to remain counter-intuitive and calm during such violent fluctuations.

I believe most people either actively sell in the emotional trough below $2000 or passively exit during a liquidation wave. Not to mention those altcoins that have dropped 90%; if you were to ask me now to look at historical price charts and tell you where to sell or liquidate, I might not be able to provide a clear answer.

Therefore, investing is not as simple as just buying and holding or interpreting charts. The real market environment is extremely complex, and before the actual market movement arrives, it is often a time when various contradictory signals are intertwined.

Compared to the low point in early April, there has been no change in the fundamentals of Ethereum, yet the price and trend are completely different. This is the market.