The native token of Pump.fun – PUMP – is showing signs of fatigue after a spectacular breakout. Along with the wave of memecoins on Solana and renewed attention from the market, PUMP surged to a local peak of 0.006899 USD on July 16.
However, just a few hours later, the price plummeted to a low of 0.005294 USD, equivalent to a 23.2% drop. This sharp correction occurred in the context of many holders taking profits early and on-chain signals indicating that selling pressure has not yet subsided – unless PUMP regains important support levels.
Whales have begun to 'dump' as realized profits surge.
The latest on-chain data recorded a wave of massive profit-taking from large wallets. According to PnL (Profit/Loss) data, the top 10 wallets alone have realized over 17 million USD in profit. Statistics from the leaderboard show that most traders have exited all positions.
Wallet CxSZ84Ui has realized 1.79 million USD, while 8 other wallets have also taken profits of 1.5 million USD or more. Notably, over 95% of the top wallets currently hold 0% of the PUMP they purchased – indicating they have sold all their coins.
In parallel, the amount of PUMP tokens held by the 'smart money' group – wallets tagged with a high win rate – has decreased by 34.5%, from over 4.3 billion to just 3.17 billion tokens. The assets of the whale wallet group have also decreased by 3.63%, indicating that the 'big players' are not just standing idle but are actively selling.
This means that mere buybacks of PUMP are not strong enough to balance out the prolonged selling pressure. The amount spent to buy back tokens is being neutralized – even overshadowed – by large-scale profit-taking activities from whales who are flooding the market.
On the contrary, the unrealized profit statistics show a dangerous scenario: many wallets are still 'holding' nearly 10 million USD in estimated profits. For example, wallet 9mKy1K8S has an unrealized profit of over 1.38 million USD and still holds 100% of the tokens. This could become the next wave of selling if the price continues to drop.
The Supertrend indicator has turned red.
The Supertrend indicator on the 1-hour timeframe has turned red – a sign that the short-term trend has become negative. This completely coincides with the profit-taking behavior of whales: after enjoying the upward momentum, they have started to withdraw, dragging the price down.
Supertrend is a trend momentum indicator, reacting to both price movements and volatility. When the price drops below a certain threshold, the indicator line will change color from green to red – signaling a reversal of the trend from bullish to bearish.
PUMP is at risk of breaking through the support area.
The price chart is painting a clearer picture. The analysis group has drawn Fibonacci retracement levels from the local peak of 0.00689 USD down to the bottom of 0.00529 USD. At the time of writing, the price of PUMP is trading around 0.00531 USD – approaching the Fibonacci bottom (level 0.0), signaling an imminent risk of breaking the support area.
Important support levels have been breached one after another: the 0.382 level (0.0059 USD) and the 0.236 level (0.00567 USD) could not hold the price. If PUMP continues to break through the 0.00529 USD level, the likelihood of a chain reaction sell-off is very high – especially when there are still many wallets in profit but have not yet sold.
The negative scenario will only be invalidated if the buying side can push the price above the Fibo 0.618 level at 0.00628 USD – currently the strongest resistance area. If it breaks above this area, PUMP could attract buying power back and proceed to retest the peak level of 0.00689 USD.