The crypto market cap reached a record high of 4 trillion dollars in July. At the same time, Bitcoin's dominance dropped to just 61.5%, the lowest since April. Analysts see this as a clear sign marking the start of the altcoin season, as capital flows begin to shift strongly from Bitcoin to other coins.
The big question now is: when should investors withdraw from the market? Based on analyses from experts, this article will highlight important factors that investors need to consider to make accurate decisions.
Altcoin investors began to realize profits from July.
Altcoin investors who began entering the market in June must have already seen profits. This is because the market cap of altcoins (TOTAL2) has grown by 44% since then, reaching 1.5 trillion dollars.
Data from Glassnode's proprietary indicator confirms that capital inflow into altcoins actually began strongly from early July.
"The Altseason indicator was activated on July 9. This means that the supply of stablecoins is increasing, redirecting into BTC and ETH, while the market cap of altcoins continues to grow — a signal that the current environment is very favorable for capital rotation."
Looking at data from CryptoBubbles, it can be seen that the market is strongly "green," with many altcoins growing from 10% to over 20% recently.
However, looking back at history, the altcoin season at the end of 2024 ended with a sharp decline. Many altcoins fell by 50% to 90%. Many investors did not act in time and witnessed their portfolios sink into losses.
Therefore, determining the right time to take profits is just as important as starting to participate in the altcoin season.
Analysts propose 4 factors to determine the exit timing.
One of the simplest and most common indicators to determine the altcoin season is the Altcoin Season Index. This index is often used to detect market entry points, but when it reaches high levels, it becomes a warning signal for investors.
Currently, according to Coinglass, this index is at 49. When the index reaches between 70 and 100 points, experts advise investors to take profits. The Altcoin Season Index has seen strong growth in recent days, and when it exceeds the threshold of 70, the market may have reached the stage where it needs to exit.
"When this index goes above 70, it's time you should consider selling altcoins."
In addition to the Altcoin Season Index, another important tool is technical analysis of the altcoin market cap (TOTAL3). Experts like Peter Brandt and Greeny believe that TOTAL3 is forming a cup and handle pattern, a sign that could precede strong growth. Based on the theory of this pattern, TOTAL3 could reach 2 trillion dollars, which could be an important time for investors to consider exiting the market.
Additionally, some investors are monitoring a 4-stage capital flow cycle to determine the end of the altcoin season. Investor NekoZ believes that the market is currently entering the second phase of this cycle, as Ethereum begins to outperform Bitcoin in profitability. In this cycle, investors will witness the following progress:
Phase 1: Bitcoin leads and experiences outstanding growth.
Phase 2: Ethereum surpasses Bitcoin in profit.
Phase 3: Large-cap altcoins begin to grow strongly.
Phase 4: Small-cap altcoins and meme coins increase in value, often marking the end of the altcoin season.
With the current strong market volatility, these factors are key to helping investors determine the ideal time to exit the market, maximize profits, and minimize risks.
Many observers are currently closely monitoring this development.
An important factor not to be overlooked is Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D). In July, Bitcoin's dominance dropped from 65.5% to 61%, marking the largest monthly decline since November 2024. Analysts suggest that, looking at trend lines in previous cycles, the altcoin season could continue until BTC.D drops to 48% to 50%.
The volatility in Bitcoin's dominance indicates a significant shift in the market, with a lot of capital flowing into altcoins rather than just focusing on Bitcoin. According to ToraX, this is a sign that capital dispersion in the crypto market is becoming increasingly evident.
While each investor may have their own strategy, past experiences from previous cycles show that holding altcoins too long can lead to significant losses. This contrasts with Bitcoin, which has a stronger recovery capability in difficult market phases. As the market heats up, risks also increase, and determining the right time to exit the market is crucial to protect existing profits.
In summary, in the context of the highly volatile crypto market today, closely monitoring indicators and changes in Bitcoin's dominance will help investors make accurate decisions and avoid unnecessary risks.
