The truth behind the sharp drop: the main force is cleaning up the market, and retail investors are cutting their losses!
The secret of the "fake fall" routine
After Bitcoin hit a new high of $123,000, it suddenly dropped to $114,000 (July 16 data). It seems like panic, but it actually hides a mystery:
Blow-up trap: 744 million USD was blown up in the entire network in 24 hours, of which 623 million USD was short positions! The main force used the bad news to force leveraged positions to sell at a loss, and then took over the chips at a low price.
Big whales are buying at the bottom: On-chain data shows that a huge amount of buy orders appeared at the $114,000 position, and a mysterious address swept up 100,000 BTC, with the cost locked at $110,000.
Deep logic of callbacks
Policy bottleneck: The U.S. Congress’s encryption bill vote was deadlocked (196:223), and Trump exerted pressure overnight to reverse the situation. The short-term fluctuations are actually a "stress test" before the policy is implemented.
Dollar rebound: The U.S. dollar index has plunged 10% this year and there is a strong expectation of a rebound. Assets denominated in U.S. dollars (including BTC) are under pressure in the short term.
Why is $110,000 called a “gold mine”?
The cost of welding was $110,000.
The average holding price of Nasdaq-listed companies and ETF giants is concentrated between US$108,000 and US$112,000**. Institutions such as BlackRock have continued to increase their holdings recently. A fall to this range is equivalent to giving away money.
Technical triple insurance
Iron bottom support: 110,000 US dollars is the double support of Fibonacci 50% retracement level + 100-day moving average. The probability of rebound at this position in the past five years is over 80%.
Fuel for liquidation: If it falls below 110,000, the short position leverage accumulated above 115,000 will reach 820 million US dollars. Once it rebounds, it will trigger a chain of liquidations to boost the rise.
On-chain signaling spoilers
Giant whales are hoarding goods: The number of addresses holding ≥ 1,000 BTC hit a new high this year. The cost of these "smart money" was only 103,000 US dollars, and they increased their holdings when the price fell to 110,000.
Retail investors buying at the bottom: Small wallets (holding less than 1 BTC) stopped selling and turned to increasing holdings. Historical patterns show that the average increase in the three months after this signal is 47%.
Countdown to getting rich: Three fires will ignite the market in August!
Policy nuclear bomb landed within 48 hours
The final vote on the US crypto bill is imminent. ETH has been determined to be classified as a commodity (with the same treatment as oil and gold). BlackRock ETH spot ETF was approved within 72 hours, and compliant funds will pour in like a tsunami.
The interest rate cut is on the accelerator
Trump forces the Fed chairman to step down, and the probability of a rate cut in September soars to 85%! History repeats itself: BTC soared 300% during the 2020 rate cut cycle, and institutions have already made arrangements in advance.
Technical side springs to the bottom
The volatility of Bitcoin has been compressed to a historical extreme, with the Bollinger Band width less than $3,000 (normally it should be over $5,000). In the past five years, there have been six similar patterns, with five of them skyrocketing within three days.
A guide for retail investors to win easily: follow the banker and eat the meat but not the soup!
The ultimate strategy for spot trading
70% of the positions are deadlocked in BTC: Institutional cost is 110,000, and if it falls to this level, increase the position with your eyes closed (invest with spare money!)
Target price: Break through 122,000 with large volume → boosted by short positions → 135,000 in August and 200,000 by the end of the year.
Conservatives benefit from policy dividends
L2 Faucet (OP): Ethereum gas fee is 30% off, OP’s weekly transaction volume doubled, and it has been sideways for two months = squatting at a low point before taking off.
Ledger Token (LDO): With an annualized return of 6.1%, it beats banks and hundreds of billions of funds are lining up to enter the market.
Trump concept coin: $TRUMP family stands on the platform and is the first beneficiary of policy dividends.
Discipline Red Line
Position ≤ 50% of spare money (to prevent insomnia)
Don't take the knife if it falls below 100,000 (wait for stabilization signal)
Stay away from high leverage (bankers specialize in killing contract players)
"When others stare at the new high of 120,000 and exclaim, smart people have seen that the main force has planted a bargain-hunting bomb at 110,000! Remember: every correction in the bull market is a redistribution of wealth - hold the spot, follow the policy, avoid leverage, and doubling the account by the end of the year is just the starting point!
Pay attention, I have not only first-hand information, but if you are watching the market every day and still losing money, then the sentence I often say is: "It's not that you can't do it, it's that you are using the wrong method." I have modified the six rollover models. I can share them, but only for those who are serious about turning things around.