The crypto market is preparing for another moment of high tension with the anticipated mass unlocking of TRUMP tokens. On July 18, nearly 90 million tokens —valued at over 1.5 billion dollars— will be released all at once, representing approximately 45% of the current circulating supply.
For investors, this is not just a figure. It is an event that could redefine the course of one of the most controversial and politicized tokens in the crypto ecosystem. The big question is: will this release cause a collapse in the price of TRUMP or mark a bullish turning point?
A giant unlocking: what is at stake?
This cliff-type unlocking (sudden release of a large amount of tokens) would already be significant by itself. But the case of TRUMP becomes even more delicate due to several factors:
The current market value of the token is around 1.9 billion dollars, so almost half of that capitalization will be put into circulation all at once.
The unlocked volume is almost five times higher than the monthly average of TRUMP token unlockings (which is around 209 million dollars).
Large wallets (whales) have started to move: transfers exceeding 1.3 million tokens were detected in the days leading up to the event.
These data raise all alarms. Historically, unlockings of this size generate strong selling pressure and significant price drops.
Price under pressure: have we seen the worst?
The recent outlook for TRUMP is not encouraging. The token has accumulated a decline of 85% from its all-time high, leaving the market in a fragile position.
When an asset is already devalued and also faces an abrupt increase in supply, the risk of a downward spiral rises. Many holders may choose to sell before further losses, thereby accelerating a possible decline.
But, as often happens in the crypto world, nothing is 100% written.
Not everything is pessimism: signals that could support the price
Despite the real risk of a downturn, there are factors that could soften the impact of the unlocking —or even provoke a contrary reaction:
Active political narrative: The TRUMP token benefits from its direct association with the current U.S. president, Donald Trump, making it a high-impact political speculation chip. Any media event, official speech, or judicial decision related to his figure can immediately influence its price.
Support from figures in the ecosystem: recently, Justin Sun —a reference in the crypto world— announced a 100 million dollar investment in the project, fueling bullish expectations.
Favorable technical reading: some analysts identify chart patterns suggesting a possible bullish reversal, with targets in the range of 30 to 40 dollars if positive sentiment is maintained.
That is, although the risk of a massive sale exists, there are elements that allow us to imagine an alternative scenario.
What do other cases of mass unlocking teach?
Similar events have already shaken other tokens. A recent example is Pi Network, where a large unlock coincided with aggressive selling and sharp declines. However, other projects managed to weather the storm, especially when they had a solid community, a clear roadmap, and sufficient liquidity to absorb the impact.
TRUMP has characteristics that make it unpredictable: strong media presence, political narrative, and active follower base. This could play in its favor during critical moments.
Buy, sell, or wait? Possible strategies
For those who already hold TRUMP, this moment requires caution. Evaluating exposure and considering tools like stop-loss or partial rebalancing may be key.
For those on the outside, this event could represent an opportunity. If the price drops abruptly after the unlocking but the project's fundamentals remain intact, a strategic entry window could open.
The essential thing is to maintain a long-term perspective, avoid impulsive decisions, and study the project thoroughly before acting.
Decisive week for TRUMP: high volatility is expected
The crypto market lives on cycles and unpredictable events —and the unlocking of TRUMP on July 18 promises to be one of those pivotal moments. With 45% of the supply about to be released, volatility seems guaranteed.
The big unknown is whether the market will interpret this unlocking as the beginning of the end for the TRUMP token… or as the start of a new stage of valuation, fueled by its political narrative, support from whales, and widespread speculation.
The only certainty is that this week will be closely monitored by traders, analysts, and curious onlookers. And it will test the patience —and strategies— of those who bet (or doubt) the potential of this controversial asset.