Recently, Bitcoin has skyrocketed to $120,000 per coin, and as BTC's price keeps rising, the most asked question is: 'Bitcoin has reached a new high, when will my altcoins get their turn?'
Actually, I've been reviewing historical data recently; I traced back the last three Bitcoin breakout trends to find patterns, and now the signals have finally reappeared.
Old players should notice that since mid-2023, every time Bitcoin has a breakout trend, it has triggered a collective rebound in altcoins. I checked the records:
$30,000 → $44,000
$45,000 → $71,000
$71,000 → $105,000 (after Trump's victory)
These three instances share a common point: after Bitcoin breaks key price levels, altcoins will welcome a 3-5 week window of explosive growth.
But once the window period passes, and Bitcoin enters consolidation, the market cap ratio may rebound, and many altcoins' gains will be gradually 'eaten away'. In simple terms, it's a 'short sprint', not a 'marathon carnival'.
Now, historical signals are reappearing.
This time, after Bitcoin broke the resistance level of $107,000, it soared to $123,000 and may even challenge $150,000. If historical patterns hold, we are currently at the starting point of a new alt season.
But be cautious: this is not a half-year altcoin carnival, but a short sprint.
Bitcoin's dominance has not fallen below a critical level, so this is not a comprehensive alt season.
If Bitcoin's dominance no longer rises, altcoins will still increase. This is exactly what happened in the last two rounds.
Which altcoins might 'take off' first?
Recently, I've been watching the flow of funds and noticed that the market has shown significant rotation signs.
The first batch to launch is the 'bank tokens'.
Payment tokens have recently shown significant movements: #XRP, #XLM, #HBAR, these 'bank tokens' that meet ISO20022 standards have quietly surged. These types of tokens are often the first to attract funds after Bitcoin's breakout due to their narrative of connecting with the traditional financial system.
Large market cap coins that haven’t moved yet deserve special attention.
Some large market cap coins haven't really moved yet, but their positions are critical:
The exchange rate of BNB against BTC is nearing historical lows; when it stops falling, it might rebound instead.
LINK, although it has seen significant outflows recently, has not collapsed fundamentally, and its technicals are bottoming out.
ADA is forming a 'double bottom' pattern, which often has strong breakout potential after such long-term formations.
TRX: poised for takeoff.
DOGE: always seems to explode during Bitcoin breakout cycles.
These are like contestants waiting to start; once the funds arrive, they may quickly rebound.
Ecosystem and narrative coins, don't miss the 'small yet beautiful' opportunities.
Solana's ecosystem has recently shown some activity, BONK has risen by 89%, and PENGU has become a favorite Meme in the crypto Twitter circle. If #SOL can keep up, we can take a closer look at the small tokens in its ecosystem.
Also, Layer 1 clones like Sui, Aptos, and AVAX, which haven't moved much since November 2023, might leverage this wave of enthusiasm.
Of course, don't forget the 'narrative is king' strategy. In 2023, TAO rose 14 times in 5 months, and PEPE rose 6.6 times against BTC, both relying on strong narratives. If a new 'hot story' emerges this time, one must act decisively.
My trading plan: don't chase highs, wait for rotation.
Lately, my operational thought process has been very clear:
Focus on blue-chip tokens first, avoid small market cap 'meme coins', as the risk is too high.
Look for coins that haven't yet taken off.
After leading coins start moving, switch to strong narrative targets, such as the current payment tokens or the ecosystem coins that may rise later.
Temporarily avoid small market cap coins; they are not worth the risk.
Finally, I want to say
The flow of funds is key; do not blindly chase highs.
Altcoins may welcome a strong cycle lasting 1 to 2 months, but history always warns: take profits, do not be greedy.
If Bitcoin surges to $150,000, the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap may collectively rise, and some assets may experience a significant rebound.
Operate rationally, hold strong tokens, and decisively abandon stagnant assets.
Maintain a bullish mindset, do not fall into blind euphoria. Keep a close eye on Bitcoin's dominance and observe BTC trading pair activities.
Currently, it's not the frenzied cycles of 2017 or 2021, but it is still a solid and reliable window period. Small market cap coins will eventually rotate, but one must wait for the right timing.
What altcoins do you hold? Let's chat in the comments~