Technical aspect: Don't panic about the rise and fall, key support is here
Short-term pressure is evident:
ETH surged to $3153 this morning, then was immediately slammed back to around $3116. This indicates selling pressure above 3150, as some people chose to take profits.
MACD indicator turns green and negative (-20.48): DIF line (68.65) crosses below DEA line (78.89), indicating a short-term need for a pullback, but note - MACD is still above the zero line, the overall trend is still controlled by bulls!
Moving averages are the key protective moat:
The three moving averages (yellow/blue/purple) are in a bullish arrangement (short-term moving average on top, long-term on the bottom), which is a sign of an upward trend.
The 5-day moving average (505,773) and 10-day moving average (550,556) positions are relatively high (the numerical unit should be trading volume incorrectly marked, actual price support is in the 3080-3100 range), as long as the pullback doesn't break 3080, the trend is not bad!
Volume reveals the truth:
Volume ratio -0.02%: The trading volume is shrinking, indicating the market is watching. After breaking 3100, without increased volume, it will be difficult to stabilize in the short term, and it is highly likely to pull back to confirm support.
Main force order hints: It is recommended that you click to check the 'main force order situation' in the picture; if there are large buy orders accumulating below 3100, it's a signal that institutions are protecting the market!
Conclusion: ETH may pull back to around 3080 to test support in the short term, but as long as it doesn't break 3080 (or even 3050), it's a buying opportunity!
In terms of news: Trump is making noise, but the Fed is the real BOSS (specific news can be reviewed in the previous article)
Trump's tariff threat = paper tiger:
He threatened small countries with 'over 10% tariffs', specifically naming Indonesia at 19%. It seems frightening, but over 20 countries have signed 'simple agreements', and the actual impact is limited. Historical experience: After similar events in 2024, ETH has always sharply dropped and then violently rebounded!
The Fed's expected rate cut in September is the climax:
Although Trump claims 'we must cut rates by 3%', the Fed's mouthpiece directly slapped back: 'CPI doesn't change policy!' Focus on the probability of a rate cut in September (currently over 70%).
Deep logic: Under the expectation of interest rate cuts, funds will position in high-risk assets (ETH, BTC) in advance; current pullbacks are just picking people up on the way back!
U.S. Treasury breaking 5% hides opportunities:
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks above 5%, which superficially seems bearish, but actually indicates that funds will shift to risk assets (over the past 3 years, ETH has had a 78% negative correlation with U.S. Treasuries).
Today's strategy: Two-step action for guaranteed profits without panic
Focus on the 3080 defense level:
If it pulls back to 3080 without breaking (especially with a volume rebound), you can add positions in batches;
If it unexpectedly drops to 3050, close your eyes and scoop up cheap chips (provided there are no unexpected black swans).
How to capture breakthrough signals:
Breaking above 3150 with volume and stabilizing means a new wave of attack is starting;
Tonight, pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials; if they hint at a rate cut in September, ETH may surge directly!
Ails' advice:
The market is currently playing 'expectation management'; Trump's bluster is just an interlude, while the Fed's interest rate cuts are the real bomb! The rise and fall of ETH is not a risk but a chance to acquire cheap chips. Remember: The lower you squat, the higher you can jump.
In times of great change, how can one act alone? The Ails ace team is assembled! Only non-mad ambitious individuals need not disturb!
