#CPIWatch Here are the latest U.S. CPI figures from the June 2025 report released on July 15, 2025:

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๐Ÿ“Š June 2025 CPI โ€” Key Highlights

Headline CPI (all items) rose 0.3% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted), following a 0.1% gain in May .

Year-over-year, headline inflation was +2.7%, up from +2.4% in May .

Core CPI (excluding food & energy) increased 0.2% month-over-month, and +2.9% year-over-year .

Whatโ€™s Driving Inflation?

Shelter is the main monthly driver, up 0.2%, with a 3.8% annual increase .

Food prices rose 0.3% m/m and are now up 3.0% y/y .

Energy climbed 0.9% for the month but is down 0.8% year-over-year .

Other categories like household goods, medical services, and apparel also saw increases, while used and new vehicle and airline fare costs declined .

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Why #CPIWatch Matters

The 2.7% headline and 2.9% core readings exceed the Fedโ€™s 2% inflation target.

Core CPIโ€™s persistent 0.2% monthly rise marks a potential pause in disinflation โ€” markets now expect rate cuts to be delayed, possibly only in September .

Tariff impacts: Prices of goods like appliances, toys, and apparel are being pushed up by trade tariffs .

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Market Response

U.S. stock indexes opened modestly higher after the report, though any enthusiasm may fade .

The 10โ€‘year Treasury yield rose to ~4.47%, and Fed rate cut odds for September are now around 61% .

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Whatโ€™s Next?

Producer Price Index (PPI) release is imminent and could offer further clues on inflation trends .

The next CPI report (July data) is due August 12, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET .

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๐Ÿงญ Summary

Juneโ€™s CPI data shows inflation rebounding more than expected. This reinforces expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady and delay cuts until signs of a sustained slowdown emerge. Tariffs are increasingly feeding into prices, and shelter continues to carry much of the inflation burden.

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