Spot ETFs are the largest source of buying this year: In mid-July, net inflows exceeded $1 billion for two consecutive days, with demand reaching 22 times the daily new output, directly draining the 'miner sell pressure'.
BlackRock's IBIT holdings have exceeded 706,000 BTC, with assets under management breaking $80 billion, becoming the largest holding entity in the public market.
All 11 U.S. spot ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows surpassing $50 billion, locking in over 1.3 million BTC.
Supply side continues to tighten
After the fourth halving in April 2024, Bitcoin's annualized inflation rate has fallen below 0.8%, reaching a historic low.
Network computing power continues to reach new highs, showing that miners remain optimistic about long-term prices, while new output has been halved.
Whales and governments hoarding coins
MicroStrategy has recently disclosed holdings reaching 601,550 BTC, continuing to execute a double-leverage strategy of 'borrowing money to buy coins, never selling'.
The U.S. government has seized over 200,000 BTC through law enforcement and has classified these assets as 'strategic Bitcoin reserves' via executive order.
Similar patterns are being emulated by other countries
Regulatory and macro tailwinds
The U.S. Congress is simultaneously advancing the Genius Act and the Clarity Act to provide a clear compliance framework for digital assets, seen as the final piece of the puzzle for Bitcoin's 'integration' into traditional finance.
After regulation is implemented, long-term institutions such as pension funds and sovereign funds can officially allocate, and the amount of this capital far exceeds the current ETF scale.
The gap with gold remains huge
The global gold market capitalization is about $21 trillion, while the total market capitalization of Bitcoin is just over $2 trillion. Even if it only catches up to half of gold's market value, the theoretical price range is above $500k—long-term growth potential remains considerable.
So far this year, Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $14.9 billion, surpassing the $8.3 billion inflow of gold ETFs in the same period, as Wall Street exchanges real money for Bitcoin.
What can ordinary investors do?
Dollar-cost averaging: Use spare money to buy in batches, smoothing out volatility.
Spot ETFs: If you don't want to manage private keys, you can choose products with the lowest fees like IBIT, FBTC, etc., which are compliant and secure.
Risk reminder
Short-term volatility: Even in a bull market, daily price fluctuations of 10% and weekly fluctuations of 20% are common.
Policy variables: Regulations in various countries are still evolving, and capital inflow and outflow channels may tighten at any time.
Macro headwinds: If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raises interest rates rapidly or the stock market experiences a severe correction, liquidity contraction will also suppress Bitcoin.
