TARIFFS and INFLATION‼️
The recent moves by Donald Trump regarding economic policy have led investors to look with even more interest at the US CPI data.
In the days leading up to this event, forecasts indicated a slight increase in the consumer price index, at a pace slightly higher than in May. Many believe this could stem from the initial effects of the tariffs imposed by Trump (or their indirect effect before they take effect for the EU), but at the same time, a certain resilience recorded in the previous months is surprising.
The inflation data for the month of June was expected to increase by 0.2% year-on-year compared to the previous month (2.6%), while increasing by 0.3% month-on-month.
In terms of the “core” data (which excludes food and energy), forecasts indicated a slight increase to 2.9%.
Last month, the downward impact on CPI seemed to come from falling prices in the automobile and clothing sectors. However, the majority of economists predicted a reversal of this trend in June, with a potential increase in core inflation.
July Data
The recently published data has largely met expectations. The CPI is slightly up compared to expectations, but the “core” data remains stable.
CPI: +2.7% yoy
CPI Core: +2.9% yoy
The reaction of Bitcoin will need to be analyzed in these first hours. The Fed has maintained a cautious approach in recent months despite Trump’s calls and his tirades against President Jerome Powell. However, for many analysts, it seems that the economic policy of the US president is discouraging further interest rate cuts.
Of course, the cuts in question would give an additional bullish boost to Bitcoin, but inflation remains a crucial aspect to avoid compromising the stability of the US economy.
