K-lines can be drawn, expectations can be changed, but the Federal Reserve's printing machine never jokes!
News Aspect
The U.S. June CPI to be released tonight at 20:30 has already become a timed bomb for the global market. Three core adjustments:
Market Expectation Anchor: CME tools show 68% betting on rate cuts in September.
Previous Value Calibration: The year-on-year Core CPI for May is 3.3%.
Game Core: The chart clearly indicates that 'Tariff Inflation Transmission + Employment Resilience' are the two major variable amplifiers.
Adding Latest Dynamics: SEC suddenly raids to investigate rumors of Tether's reserves (Coindesk 13:00 news), creating a hedge against the positive news for ETH spot ETF. Historical backtest: When March CPI was below expectations, ETH surged 9% in 90 minutes.
Technical Refinement
Life and Death Order Band: 12,500 ETH is settled on-chain in the 2960-2968 range.
Volume Truth: The MACD histogram has been stuck on the zero axis for 8 consecutive hours, the weakest fluctuation in nearly half a month.
Long-Short Noose: The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have narrowed to 2950-2990, compressing 30 dollars compared to the original statement.
Exchange Rate Warning: ETH/BTC is stuck at the 0.0495 life-and-death line, breaking this will trigger 320 million dollars of options liquidation on Deribit.
Logic Restructuring
The Core Contradiction Lies in Expectation Difference Management:
Above Expectation Cooling (Core CPI ≤ 3.1%): The 3083 watershed can be broken, but there are 710 million dollars of sell orders clustered at 3120.
Inflation Rebound (Core CPI ≥ 3.5%): The 2950 defense line is weak, strong support is only below 2900.
Precisely Meets Expectations (3.3%): High probability of replicating May's trend — first a spike to 3% then a return.
CPI Announcement Countdown! My long-short alarm has been activated, profit alert is about to ring!$ETH
#CPI数据来袭 #ETH突破3000
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