Undercurrents surge on-chain, the market is calm as a clock - 117000 becomes the battleground for bulls and bears, breaking it will determine the outcome!
News Front
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Aftershock: Powell reiterated at last night's hearing that 'Interest rates won't be lowered until inflation is stable'. Nasdaq futures fell by 0.6%, with 1800 BTC (approximately 210 million USD) detected moving to exchanges on-chain, selling pressure continues.
BlackRock's Sudden Filing: The newly submitted IBTCZ cryptocurrency trust was misinterpreted as a positive, but it actually belongs to a routine product iteration (as clarified on page 23 of the SEC filing, it does not involve new funds).
Mining Farm Sudden Sell-off: A mining farm in Yunnan sold 450 BTC due to power fluctuations (on-chain address 1MinerX can be checked), short-term liquidity under pressure.
Technical Analysis
Life-and-death Watershed: Price sticks in the range of 117,000-117,200, the MACD bar on the 1-hour chart shrinks to the zero axis, bulls and bears are in a stalemate.
Main Player's Betting Trace: Accumulated over 1500 sell orders at 117,150-117,180, the wall is high but hides signs of splitting orders.
Three short orders of 300+ BTC are hovering at 117,800 (totaling 11 million USD), the pressure has weakened.
Volume Warning: Yesterday at 23:00, 11,000 BTC was dumped, today's rebound volume is only 65% of the daily average, the weak pattern remains unchanged.
Tycoon's Opinion:
Market Sentiment Contradiction: BlackRock's filing was overinterpreted, the real impact requires 20 working days for the SEC process, short-term is an emotional disturbance. The sell-off by Yunnan miners accounts for 0.025% of the entire network, the actual impact is limited but has intensified retail panic.
Core Contradiction Shift: Institutions are reducing cryptocurrency exposure due to Federal Reserve policy (JPMorgan's report shows a 17% reduction in Q2), 117,000 has become the psychological defense line for bulls and bears, losing it may trigger programmed selling.
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