Key points to pay attention to for tonight's CPI:
1. Expected inflation rise, which is currently the subjective view of the market. The important aspect is whether it is above expectations or within expectations; both have significantly different impacts on the probability of a rate cut in September, as well as on price volatility.
2. Once inflation rises, the subsequent PPI and consumer data are expected to deteriorate in sync, which means increased supply-side pressure from rising inflation and a slowdown in demand, directly reflecting expectations of "stagflation."
3. Personally, I feel that expectations of stagflation need more months of data to attract market attention, but it is evident that many mainstream media outlets and institutions have already started to hype this topic.
4. If stagflation risk increases, expectations for economic growth may be lowered again. Two consecutive quarters of economic slowdown coupled with stagflation risk could significantly weaken the positive effects of a rate cut.
5. Returning to an old topic, how to define the September rate cut? Is it a forward-looking rate cut to promote steady economic development, or is it a "closing the stable door after the horse has bolted" type of cut? If it is the latter, then the rate cut will not bring positive effects, but rather negative ones.
6. For #Bitcoin, the focus tonight is on the support level at 117,000. If it breaks below, reference should be made to daily level corrections, and such a correction would break the previous strong trend. To initiate another upward trend, new bullish momentum may be needed.
