🚨 BTC Dumping Culprit Identified: Short-Term Holders (STH) Become Main Selling Pressure!

📊 Data Breakdown (24-Hour Key Flow)

1️⃣ Long-Term Holders (LTH) → Almost Unmoved

Coinbase: Only 1 transaction of 173 BTC (7/15 0:00) Binance: Only 1 transaction of 159 BTC (7/14 13:00)

👉 Conclusion: Whales/Institutions Have Not Sold Off in Large Quantities

2️⃣ Short-Term Holders (STH) → Crazy Offloading

Coinbase: Concentrated sell-off of 5,523 BTC in the early morning (largest single transaction) totaling 15,800 BTC (accounting for 68% of total) Binance: Intensive outflow during the day of 2,397~2,000 BTC per transaction totaling 7,400 BTC (accounting for 32% of total)

🔍 Behavioral Pattern Analysis

• Time Zone Difference: Greater selling pressure during European and American trading hours (Coinbase), followed by Asian hours (Binance)

• Nature of Holdings: STHs are mostly swing traders/leverage players, rapid declines trigger stop-loss chain reactions

• Main Battlefield: Total selling pressure on Coinbase is more than double that on Binance

💡 Impact on Future Markets

✅ Positive Signal:

Long-term holders are reluctant to sell, indicating confidence in future markets. After cleaning up short-term floating supply, selling pressure above may be alleviated

⚠️ Risk Warning:

If STHs continue to sell (especially if breaking key support), it may trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Be cautious of liquidity crises due to sudden increases in BTC reserves on exchanges

📌 Trading Strategy Recommendations

1️⃣ Short-Term:

Observe whether BTC net inflow on Coinbase/Binance continues. If STH selling pressure weakens + price consolidates, a rebound from oversold conditions could be played

2️⃣ Medium to Long-Term:

Wait for a surge in LTH transfers to exchanges (a real signal of market peak). The 112K-115K range is an important on-chain support; breaking it requires reevaluation

#Bitcoin #On-ChainAnalysis #SellingPressureSource

(Forward Reminder: The real giant whales have yet to act; the current volatility is just retail investors cutting each other!)