The current market liquidity analysis for BTC is as follows!
The liquidation area is concentrated in the range of $115,000 to $113,800, and there has been no significant reduction in long positions, indicating that short-term long funds have not yet conceded defeat and exited the market. From a technical perspective, the short-term trend shows a bearish tendency, but the long-term trend still favors longs. Combining these two points, I believe the market may first experience a rapid decline, followed by a recovery.
It is worth noting that before the price fully fills the previous gap, the bottom-fishing funds in the spot market are showing a wait-and-see attitude and have not yet entered the market on a large scale. As for whether the whales will take further action, and whether the upcoming CPI data will be bearish or bullish for the market, there remains uncertainty. Based on these factors, I personally choose to remain cautious for the time being.
If the price tests the lower edge of the liquidation zone twice in a row without effectively breaking down, and an "it should drop but doesn't" anomaly signal appears, it can be regarded as a short-term buying opportunity.
However, from a historical probability perspective, the likelihood of this situation occurring is relatively low, and it is necessary to carefully assess the risks.
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