1. SOL/USDT 1-Hour K-Line Chart Key Analysis

1. Current Price and Technical Indicators

Current Price: 159.45 USDT (-1.65%), indicating a short-term bearish dominance.

Bollinger Bands (BOLL):

The price is close to the lower band, indicating short-term oversold conditions, but further downside risks should be monitored.

The upper band (UB 163.23) and the middle band (not marked) form a resistance zone. If it cannot break through 163.23, the trend remains bearish.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels: If based on the recent high (assuming the previous high is around 169.76),

The current price has retraced to the 38.2%-50% range (approximately 162.52-160), with strong support, but a volume increase is needed to confirm the rebound.

Trading Volume: Increased trading volume during the decline indicates heavy selling pressure, and market sentiment is fearful.

2. Three Possible Reasons for Last Night's Plunge

Federal Reserve's hawkish expectations are heating up:

14:45 Federal Reserve's Collins speech may release signals of 'delayed interest rate cuts,' putting collective pressure on risk assets.

If the 20:30 US CPI data exceeds expectations, it will further strengthen the interest rate hike expectations and suppress cryptocurrency liquidity.

Ethereum ecosystem siphoning effect:

If ETH fluctuates in the 2956-2988 range, funds may shift from SOL to ETH, leading to SOL sell-offs.

Technical breakdown leading to a chain reaction of stop-losses:

If SOL falls below the 162.52 support level, it will trigger algorithmic trading stop-loss orders, accelerating the decline.

2. Today's Key Data and SOL Trend Outlook

1. 20:30 US CPI Data

If CPI exceeds expectations:

The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates for a longer period, and SOL may test the 155-158 support zone.

If CPI is below expectations:

SOL may rebound to the 163.23-165 resistance zone, but a breakthrough at 169.76 is needed to confirm a trend reversal.

2. 21:15 Federal Reserve Governor Bowman Speech

If 'accelerated tapering' or 'persistent inflation' is mentioned, SOL may test lower levels again; if the tone is dovish, it may trigger a short-term rebound.

3. Suggested Trading Strategies

1. Short-term Traders

Short Entry Points: Near 163.23, stop loss at 165, target at 159.

Long Entry Points: 155-158 range, stop loss at 154, target at 162.52.

2. Swing Traders

Wait for the CPI data to be released. If the price stabilizes above 163.23 and trading volume increases, consider gradually positioning for long orders, betting on a rebound to 169.76.

4. Risk Warning

Extreme Market Warning: If CPI data and Bowman’s speech are both negative, SOL may fall below 155, heading straight for the psychological level of 150!

Contract traders take note: It is advisable to reduce leverage under high volatility to avoid liquidation risks.

Summary: The plunge of SOL is the result of macro expectations combined with technical breakdowns; today's CPI data is a dividing line for bulls and bears! Pay attention to the breakthrough situation of the 155-169 range, and adhere to strict stop-losses.

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