📉 $BTC — analysis for July 15, 2025
🎯 Current price: $116,714
📉 Daily drop: -4.6%
📊 Max/Min 24h: $122,703 / $116,250
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🔧 Technical analysis (1D)
✅ Trend: still bullish 🐂, but Bitcoin has clearly decided to catch its breath — a correction followed, like after three cups of coffee without food ☕😵💫
📍 Price is currently above EMA(21) and EMA(50) → structure is strong, the trend is not broken, just a bit down.
🟢 Breakthrough of $120K happened, but... we sharply fell away from $123K and are now rolling down to support $115K–116K — a test of strength 🤜🧱
📉 Supports:
$115,000 (EMA 9) — right underfoot, like a skateboard without brakes
$112,000 (EMA 21 + liquidity zone) — if we fall there, it might be beautiful
📈 Resistances:
$121,000 — local high, the zone 'shorting from the heart'
$123,200 — historical maximum, from there Bitcoin shouted: 'Enough!' and went down
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📊 Indicators:
RSI (10): 65 — ⚖️ Neutral, but overheated
Stoch RSI: 69.2 / 84.6 — 🔴 Overbought → Bitcoin is full, it may deflate
Williams %R: -35.9 — 🟠 Zone of uncertainty: neither up nor down — like a traffic jam on a Friday
EMA:
EMA(9) = $115,543
EMA(21) = $112,103
EMA(50) = $108,135
➡ Price is above all — as long as the momentum is alive, like a cat after its fifth life 🐱⚡
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🌍 Macro and news (impact on $BTC ):
1. 💵 DXY is rising — the dollar is flexing its muscles, and Bitcoin is nervously biting its nails
2. 📉 The stock market is falling — inflation in the USA scared everyone, even S&P
3. 💼 ETF — there is an inflow, but it's no longer a fountain
4. 📆 FRS July 17 — waiting like for an exam: either a celebration or 'short to the max'
5. ⛏️ Mining — difficulty is at a record high, miners are sweating and seem to be locking in profits
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🧠 Macro conclusion:
The background is not necessarily bad, but it's not 'wow' either 😐
📌 In the short term — we might still sneeze down
📌 In the long term — the trend remains bullish as long as we hold key levels
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🧮 Conclusions on $BTC :
📉 The price corrected after the local maximum of $123,200
📍 As long as we hold $115K–116K — everything is under control
🧪 Oscillators whisper: there might be one more pullback — be ready for a false start
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✅ What to do?
🟢 Option 1:
• Waiting for a retest of the $115K–116K zone
• Going LONG — but not with the whole amount 🍗
🔴 Option 2:
• If there is a volume-less rise to $118–119K —
• You can try SHORT, but a stop is mandatory — like a helmet on a motorcycle 🪖
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💬 Summary:
Bitcoin is not dead, it just went to take a shower after the marathon. Until it starts sliding below $112K — it's too early to panic, but keep your sneakers ready 🏃