Bitcoin's Current Situation! Key Support Faces CPI Test
Looking at the trend this morning, it's not very strong. The important support level mentioned yesterday has now moved up to around $116,900, which is where the price is currently hovering.
CPI data tonight is the focus: Support level faces a real test
I expect that before the CPI is released tonight, this key support level may move up to around $117,000.
Core issue: If tonight's CPI data is bad, causing the price to effectively break through this support level, then we need to focus on the next support level around $113,000.
If it really falls to $113,000, it may very well mean that the daily level is about to start a correction. This is like the first wave of a "three-wave decline" after making a new high. You can refer to the correction trend after May 22.
Now we can only take it one step at a time
I need to make it clear that the "three-wave decline" or the deeper "five-wave decline" mentioned above are now based on speculation of historical patterns, which is a bit like "carving a boat to find a sword." How it will actually go needs to be verified by the actual trend later.
Currently, the support at 116,900 has temporarily held. But the biggest uncertainty is tonight's CPI data - it's like a stress test to see if this support level is strong enough to withstand the impact.
My observation points:
Keep a close eye on the 116,900 / 117,000 area: This is the line between life and death before tonight's CPI.
Price action after CPI: Focus on whether it breaks down effectively. If it breaks down effectively, 113,000 is the next important reference point.
Confirm correction pattern: If it starts to fall, first observe whether it is a "three-wave" intermediate correction like at the end of May, or whether there is a risk of a deeper decline.
In a word: Support is temporarily effective, but tonight's CPI is the real litmus test!
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