Who is quietly increasing positions before the CPI?
Trump again signals tariff risks: stating that if Russia and Ukraine cannot cease fire within 50 days, he will impose a 100% tariff on Russian goods and consider 'secondary sanctions' on Russian oil buyers; at the same time, he announced a 30% tariff on goods from Mexico and the EU starting in 2025.
Affected by this, US stocks briefly declined in early trading, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.44%, nearing a monthly high. However, due to the absence of crude oil export restrictions in the sanctions, oil prices saw a spike before retreating, with WTI crude falling over 3% at one point during the session.
The market is consolidating with reduced volume, technology is under pressure, and banking and Chinese concept stocks are strengthening.
US stocks traded lightly on Monday, with the S&P 500 index slightly up 0.14%, and the Nasdaq up 0.27%, continuing the typical 'data pre-waiting' market trend. The banking sector performed relatively well, with regional banks and bank ETFs both rising, while the technology giants index fell slightly, with the semiconductor sector remaining weak, and Nvidia's market value briefly falling below $400 billion.
Chinese concept stocks are actively performing, with NIO up nearly 7%, and Kingsoft Cloud soaring nearly 10%, particularly as Kingsoft Cloud attracted attention due to its integration with Kimi-K2 AI models, gaining emotional catalysts in the short term.
BTC breaks another high, and there are signs of fund reallocation in precious metals.
Bitcoin once strongly broke through $123,000 during the Asia-Pacific trading session, setting a new historical high with an intraday increase of over 3%. Although it later retraced, it still closed up about 1.7%. Funds are preemptively re-pricing inflation and sanction risks on-chain, forming a 'head start' against traditional assets.
Meanwhile, silver quickly retraced after reaching a nearly 14-year high during the session, showing a typical inverted V pattern, indicating short-term signs of fund reallocation in precious metals, with some hedging funds possibly shifting towards digital assets or other high-elasticity targets.
Cryptocurrency concept stocks are rising across the board, with Strategy Micro up over 3%. Additionally, Trade Desk surged more than 14% after hours due to its inclusion in the S&P 500 index, demonstrating that capital is still searching for structural highlights.
In the context of intertwined inflation and sanction risks, the market is reassessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path for the year, while the cryptocurrency market has clearly begun to price in a 'looser' or 'more turbulent' macro outlook. Gold shows volatile movements, silver retreats from high levels, while Bitcoin refreshes its historical high once again, potentially initiating a new round of 'on-chain hedging' gaming cycle.
The CPI data and large bank earnings report to be released this week will serve as a key window to validate the logic of BTC 'pricing ahead of traditional assets'. Before the data is announced, perhaps we can wait a moment and observe the next moves of on-chain and off-chain funds.
