Let’s focus on the key point: tonight's CPI is important, but it does not determine life or death.
Right now, the market is just quarreling about two points—
One is: will the CPI data exceed expectations?
One is: what if it exceeds expectations, is it over?
My viewpoint: the data is likely to be on the hot side, but the market may not necessarily collapse.
Why?
Look at the current market expectations, everyone is fixated on the 2.7% figure scaring themselves, the previous value was only 2.4%, even based on the conservative Cleveland Fed model, it’s at 2.64%. In plain language: unless the statistics bureau suddenly pulls a magic trick tonight, a value higher than the previous one is very likely.
Looking at core inflation, the previous value was 2.8%, and the expectation is 3%. Do you really think it can go down? It’s naive to view the Federal Reserve as a philanthropist. This inflation, hot is the norm, cool is a miracle.
Here comes the key point: even if the data is hot, will the market crash significantly?
Not necessarily. Because what the market is looking at now is **not how the current group of old guys will act, but how the next Federal Reserve chair will play.** In other words, the market has long since viewed it as a new administration.
Let’s talk about the market:
Last night Bitcoin surged to 123.3K, then plummeted; many people asked if it has peaked. I said: don’t overthink it, the structure hasn’t broken, it’s still a bullish situation.
Why did it crash? Look at the news front, the geopolitical hotspots of Trump + Canada Goose, combined with technical short-term overbought conditions, a bunch of people must take a breather after the climax. Simply put, this crash is meant to 'slap the faces of those chasing high', but it’s not the 'end of the market'.
And has the main players distributed their stocks? No.
This kind of movement is a typical 'washing out + consolidation + then surging'. You think it’s bearish just because it fell, but in reality, the main players are just clearing the field, waiting for emotions to cool down before slowly pushing it up.
Also, take a look at the funding rates, which have skyrocketed in recent days, many high-leverage positions have directly been called out for liquidation. Before the leverage is completely blown, this kind of fluctuation is normal operation, not a signal of a crash.
What to do next?
Don’t chase high shorts, and don’t panic and cut losses;
Focus on the key support level: 106.6K, as long as this level holds, any pullback is considered 'healthy';
The daily EMA20 is still holding, even if it goes down further, there are still support levels;
Wait until the data is released tonight, see if there’s an opportunity for a rebound after an oversell, and take a small position;
If you really want to wait for a big opportunity, it probably won’t come until around the September interest rate meeting.
The current market is not about collapsing, but about a rhythm of 'repeated washing and slowly surging'. The real carnival will happen when capital emotions fully explode and interest rate cuts are finalized.
Conclusion:
What the market fears most right now is actually not inflation, but **'expectations falling short'**. As long as everyone still believes the Federal Reserve will save the market, the main players can keep playing.
Remember this phrase: don’t guess the top, don’t bet on a one-sided market, follow the structure, and the market can go far.
To win, don’t rely on luck, rely on rhythm.
The market hasn’t finished moving yet, don’t rush to get off.
