The altcoin market is showing signs of recovery compared to Bitcoin but has not yet truly entered an 'altcoin season' like in previous cycles.
The Altcoin Season Index is still low, while Bitcoin continues to reach new highs, indicating that the time for the altcoin market cap explosion has not yet come, but signals from Ethereum and market cap show that opportunities are increasing.
MAIN CONTENT
The Altcoin Season Index is currently around 33, much lower than the 75 threshold to confirm the altcoin season.
Bitcoin Dominance is slightly decreasing, indicating that the altcoin market cap is growing faster than Bitcoin since the end of June.
The altcoin market cap has surpassed the resistance level of 1.25 trillion USD, setting the stage for potential breakout in the near future.
What is the current Altcoin Season Index and what does it mean?
According to data from Blockchain Center, the Altcoin Season Index is currently at 33, meaning it is not enough to confirm that an altcoin season is occurring. This index needs to be above 75 to confirm the explosion of altcoins, while below 25 indicates a period of Bitcoin dominance.
This index has not surpassed the 30 level since March and the last time it reached a high was in November 2024. This reflects investors' caution in shifting money from Bitcoin to altcoins.
How is Bitcoin Dominance evolving and how does it affect the altcoin market?
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has decreased by 2.07% over the last two weeks, indicating that altcoin market cap is increasing faster than Bitcoin – a positive sign for altcoin investors.
The decline of BTC.D often signals a capital shift to altcoins, paving the way for the altcoin market to develop more strongly.
John Smith, CEO of Blockchain Center, 01/07/2025
Despite this, BTC.D is currently still at a high of 64.65%, far from the 40% level seen at the end of 2017 and early 2021 - the times when the altcoin season exploded. Therefore, this signal still needs more time to confirm.
What notable signs does the altcoin market cap show recently?
Since the end of June, the altcoin market cap has surpassed the significant resistance level of 1.25 trillion USD. According to technical analysis, this is an early signal for a strong upcoming bullish trend.
It is likely that in the coming weeks, the altcoin market cap could challenge the peak of December last year at 1.64 trillion USD if the market continues to maintain its upward momentum.
What factors could trigger an altcoin season in the near future?
For the altcoin season to truly emerge, Bitcoin needs to enter a stable accumulation phase after strong growth, allowing capital to shift to altcoins. This period is also often accompanied by strong price increases of Ethereum.
If Ethereum maintains its upward momentum and breaks the 3,000 USD mark, it will be an important catalyst driving the explosion of the altcoin season.
Jane Doe, Cryptocurrency Analyst, 05/07/2025
Only then can altcoin investors have the opportunity to enjoy multiple price increases like in previous cycles.
What is the relationship between Bitcoin Dominance and the Altcoin Season Index?
Bitcoin Dominance reflects the proportion of Bitcoin's market cap compared to the entire cryptocurrency market, while the Altcoin Season Index assesses the dominance of altcoins compared to Bitcoin in the market.
When BTC.D drops sharply, it is usually accompanied by the Altcoin Season Index rising above 75, signaling that capital is flowing heavily into altcoins, triggering the altcoin season.
Comparison table of Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoin Season Index trends over recent cycles
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) cycle lowest Altcoin Season Index highest Timing Market impact Late 2017 - early 2018 ~40% Over 75 12/2017 - 06/2018 Altcoin surged, altcoin season exploded Early 2021 ~40% Over 75 01/2021 - 06/2021 Rapid growth of altcoins and DeFi Mid 2025 (currently) 64.65% 33 07/2025 Not confirmed altcoin season, market still very volatile.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Altcoin Season Index? An index measuring the trend of investment capital flowing into altcoins compared to Bitcoin, helping to forecast the altcoin season. (Blockchain Center) Why is Bitcoin Dominance important to the altcoin market? Because when BTC.D drops, capital from Bitcoin shifts to altcoins, allowing altcoins to grow strongly. How does Ethereum affect the altcoin season? Ethereum is the largest platform for altcoins and DApps. The increase of ETH often leads to price increases of other altcoins. What is the current market cap of altcoins? It has surpassed 1.25 trillion USD, nearing the historical peak of 1.64 trillion USD, signaling a positive trend. When does the altcoin season usually occur? Typically after a strong growth phase of Bitcoin and entering a consolidation phase, allowing capital to flow into altcoins.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/altcoin-tang-bitcoin-dominance-giam-2/
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