Deep潮 TechFlow news, on July 15, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that by July 15, 2025, Bitcoin strongly broke through its historical high, peaking at approximately $122,850, igniting market expectations for the 'altcoin activation season' — funds are spreading from BTC to high Beta assets such as ETH, SOL, and DeFi. Signals from the options market show strong bullish demand, with the put-call skew reversing from +2% to approximately +5%, implied volatility at recent low levels, while open interest and trading volume significantly surged after the breakout, with institutional positioning signals leaning towards a stable bullish direction.
Meanwhile, Japan's bond market is experiencing severe volatility: the yield on 20-year government bonds surged to approximately 2.61%, and the yield on 30-year government bonds broke through 3%, both reaching new highs since 2000, reflecting market concerns about Japan's fiscal and interest rate normalization path, which may also trigger structural adjustments in global arbitrage funds.
At the macro level, trade tensions between the US and Europe are escalating, with the EU planning to impose counter tariffs on $84 billion worth of US products, while the US continues to pressure Fed Chairman Powell, increasing policy uncertainty. Although the market initially expected a rate cut in September, strong employment data and policy disruptions have lowered expectations to about 70%, while the upcoming June CPI data is expected to show core year-on-year growth rising to 2.9%. If inflation continues to rise, it will be detrimental to rate cut expectations and further push up US bond yields.
In summary, Bitcoin's current rise is attributed to its safe-haven properties and the label of dollar-denominated assets. As Japanese government bond yields rise and the global interest rate structure may be at an inflection point, combined with the bullish structure of the options market, this forms an important structural basis for funds to switch from BTC to altcoin assets.
