Tonight, the CPI data will be announced. Let's briefly discuss the current market sentiment. Everyone is fixated on the expectation of '2.7%' as if it were something terrifying. But think about it, last month's CPI was only 2.4%. Even if we reference the Cleveland Fed's relatively conservative calculation, the estimate is only 2.64%. A slightly higher figure isn't surprising; overall, it's a 'relatively hot' data point. Unless the statistics bureau pulls a big surprise, anything above the previous value tonight is pretty much a certainty.

Core inflation is similar; last time it was 2.8%, and this time the expectation is 3%. If you really think it can drop further, then you must think the Federal Reserve is not serious. But even if the data isn't great, will the market really crash? I don't see it that way. The market has long stopped caring about how the current Federal Reserve is adjusting interest rates; everyone is betting on how the 'next' one will play its cards.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin surged to 123.3K last night but was quickly smashed down. News reports say it's related to political news from Trump, but from a technical perspective, it seems more like the market got too excited after a short-term increase and needs to cool down. The structure hasn't broken; the overall direction is still stable, and this adjustment doesn't indicate that the market has peaked.

The main players haven't really sold off; they just took advantage of the soaring funding rates to push down a bit and clear out the excessive long positions. Once the market cools down, they can continue pushing it up. So this current decline is not the beginning of a bear market, but rather a washout intended to allow for further gains later.

In the short term, as long as it doesn't drop below 106.6K, this is considered a normal adjustment. If it does break, there is still support from the daily EMA20 below, so it won't collapse. Looking at the spot market, the premium has returned, indicating that retail investors haven't been scared off and still hold their positions. In this state, it is likely that we are entering a consolidation zone, which may extend until the Fed's rate cut in September before another wave of movement.

Tonight's CPI is essentially an excuse to shake out the leveraged positions. If it does drop significantly, there may be opportunities for rebounds due to excessive declines. There's no need to guess the top or fantasize about a crash; just operate according to the technical structure.

What the market loves to hear is actually 'interest rates will be very low,' rather than 'a pause in rate cuts.' The main players understand this, and we should too. So don't let a few CPI numbers derail your emotions; a rate cut in September is virtually a certainty.