20250713
30% Tariffs on EU exports might have severe impact on global markets, including crypto. The deadline is August 1st.
What to expect? Volatility (a more sophisticated word for chaos/mess)
The EU-US negotiations for more reasonable rates have been unfruitful so far.
US imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum early this year. In retaliation, the EU is considering cease of trade as a 30% tariff is pervasive to the bloc (as it would cease to be reasonably profitable). The has planned as countermeasure to target $23-85B (USD) worth of US exports.
According to the European Council, EU-US bilateral trade in goods and services was worth €1.68 trillion ($1.96 trillion) last year.
The Global economy will inevitably be pessimistic and panic once again if trade issues worsen or remain uncertain.
Until now, the market seem to have completely forgotten the "historical" market crash of April. The problems that led to that climax, were never solved.
The CRYPTO INDUSTRY is not immune to reality, it is part of it.
Not even Bitcoin can exist in isolation, and its price will always be forced to reflect reality over biases at some point.
MAAM_A1™
Broadly speaking, there are 2 possible scenarios:
Optimism could be overriden by renewed political tensions.
Capital flight moves to commodities, including GOLD and BTC due to fiat currency risk.
Remember, no crypto, not even #bitcoin can move independently from developments that affect consumer spending and credit expansion (since most of the volume is traded through derivatives and real purchases on borrowed money).
Some might argue that $BTC is a safe heaven asset. I argue, it is only if not bought at the top, while 20-50 drawdowns for HODLERs is not uncommon.
Even if it continues to perform from 120K upwards, it will remain a very volatile asset because it is not the only asset in the world, it is a form of investment competing for capital against other asset classes, which at some point, would be more promising than BTC in term of price, i.e potential for appreciation.
Traders do not mean to hold forever, and they are the majority.
STAY ALERT.