This week's macro events:
Tuesday: CPI data release
Wednesday: PPI data release + Federal Reserve Board member speech
Thursday: U.S. retail sales data + initial jobless claims for the week
Friday: U.S. July year-on-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value + University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value
The data released this week is crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path. Currently, the market expects only a 6.7% probability of a rate cut in July, a 63% probability in September, and a high likelihood of two rate cuts by the end of the year.
If the market's expectation for the first rate cut in September gradually solidifies, the next key focus will shift to: when is the second rate cut more likely to occur? (For example: November, December, or later?)
