Ethereum (ETH) completed its transition from a Proof of Work (PoW) mechanism to a Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism on September 15, 2022, which had a significant impact, along with the construction of Layer 2. The performance of ETH's second layer has also been unsatisfactory. The weakness of ETH in this round of the bull market indicates that the fundamentals have changed; otherwise, it is hard to explain why ETH could not reach new highs in 2023 and 2024, despite the smooth approval of ETFs and BTC's continuous rise.
Looking back at ETH's price movements, it is not difficult to see the obvious traces of manipulation by big players. Whether it is the 40% drop on February 3, 2025, or the 100% surge in just a few days on May 8, both demonstrate the powerful and brutal manipulation capabilities of ETH's major players. It can be said that the major players of ETH are the group that understands and can manipulate the price of ETH the best in the world. Strong manipulation is not necessarily a bad thing; only those altcoins with strong manipulation in this bull market have a future. Those without strong manipulation or those abandoned by major players, like FIL, ICP, AEVO, W, etc., have all fallen like a lump of mud, moving downward all the way.
However, as mentioned earlier, the fundamentals of ETH have changed. The manipulation by major players is to lift prices and sell off. In the first half of this year, taking advantage of the market, ETH fell from a peak of 4000 to 1400, completing a very impressive and bloody washout. Retail investors were wiped out completely. After the washout is completed, the next goal is to raise prices for selling off. ETH's major players will use all favorable factors to pump up the price before November 2025, such as BTC hitting new highs, the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, or Trump posting on social media, etc. However, these price increases are meant for you to sell off, not for you to accumulate more. It can be anticipated that holding ETH will be safe before the Federal Reserve truly cuts interest rates.
I am not an ETH major player and do not know how high they plan to push ETH in the coming months, but do not buy any ETH after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, especially for beginners. Do not listen to others and buy in after ETH surges; otherwise, you will be stuck with dollar-cost averaging. In the event of fundamental changes, Ethereum's bear market could fall to unimaginable levels.
Focus for the day: uni, sui, link, sol, ethfi
