Current situation (July 14, 2025):
- Price: ~0.39–0.41 USD (based on current data, CoinMarketCap).
- Context: XLM is the native token of the Stellar blockchain, launched in 2014 by Jed McCaleb and Joyce Kim. Stellar is focused on fast and cheap cross-border payments, competing with Ripple (XRP). It uses the Stellar Consensus Protocol (SCP) for scalability and security. Market capitalization: ~11–12 billion USD (ranking ~15–20). Trading volume: ~150–200 million USD/24h. Circulating supply: ~29.7 billion XLM, total: ~50 billion (after burning 50% in 2019). The price has fallen ~56% from ATH (0.938 USD, November 2024), but shows recovery (+5–7% over the week). TVL: ~100–150 million USD.
Technical forecast for 2026 (based on analytics):
- Prices:
- Optimistic: 0.92–1.76 USD (growth of 130–350%) in a bull market and institutional adoption.
- Neutral: 0.50–1.00 USD (growth of 25–150%).
- Pessimistic: 0.12–0.43 USD in case of correction or regulatory restrictions.
- Levels:
- Support: 0.35–0.39 USD, 0.22–0.28 USD.
- Resistance: 0.50–0.60 USD, 0.85–1.00 USD.
- Trend: Bullish. The daily chart shows an ascending triangle (RSI ~50–60, 50 MA above 200 MA). A breakout at 0.50 USD could signal growth to 0.85–1.00 USD, while a drop below 0.35 USD indicates a correction. The weekly RSI (~46) suggests growth potential if it breaks 46.14.
Fundamentals:
- Growth drivers:
- Cross-border payments: Stellar is used by MoneyGram, IBM, Franklin Templeton for fast and cheap transfers (0.00001 XLM per transaction).
- Partnerships: Mastercard, Circle (USDC), Deloitte; integration with Soroban (smart contracts).
- Ecosystem: 8 million+ accounts, growth of tokenized assets, support for CBDC (central bank digital currencies).
- Community: Positive on X (@scopuly, @ChartingGuy) — forecasts up to 0.92–2.50 USD with CBDC adoption and a breakout at 0.62 USD.
- BTC Halving (2024): supports altcoins in 2025–2026.
- Deflation: fixed supply (50 billion XLM) after burning in 2019.
- Risks:
- Regulation: SEC may classify XLM as a security.
- Competition: Ripple (XRP), Solana, SWIFT.
- Volatility: capitalization (~12 billion USD) is vulnerable to whales.
- Pessimism: WalletInvestor predicts a drop to 0.12–0.18 USD by 2026, considering XLM high-risk.
- Technical risks: network failures or weak adoption of Soroban.
Recommendation:
- For investors: Buy on corrections to 0.35–0.39 USD, stop below 0.22 USD. Target: 0.85–1.50 USD. Staking (APR ~1–3%) for income.
- For traders: Buy on a breakout at 0.50 USD, target 0.85–1.00 USD. Sell below 0.35 USD, target 0.22–0.28 USD.
- Risk: 1–2% of deposit due to volatility and regulatory risks.
Risks: Regulation, competition, whale manipulation, decline in network activity, drop in BTC/ETH.
