On July 14, 2025, at 11:04 AM, the cryptocurrency market witnessed a historic moment—Bitcoin first crossed the $120,000 mark, peaking at $121,344. However, during this exciting moment, social media did not engage in the usual 'bull market celebrations'; instead, it seemed unusually calm. Within just 24 hours, nearly 100,000 people faced liquidations, with $278 million disappearing into thin air. The market ecology, intertwined with rationality and fervor, is revealing a profound structural transformation.
On the surface, everything seems calm, but underneath, there are strong currents: three sets of data reveal the 'new logic' of the bull market.
1 | Liquidation Distribution Shows a Shift in Capital Mindset
According to data from mainstream exchanges, the total amount of short liquidations during this round of price increase reached $190 million, accounting for 68%, while long liquidations were only $92.19 million, indicating that the market was highly biased towards long positions before the breakout. Among them, the largest liquidation on the Bybit-BTC platform reached $2.86 million, directly hit by bulls.
On the other hand, mainstream coins are displaying unusually 'restrained' movements: Ethereum stabilizes around $3,000, rising only 2%, while XRP increases by 5.14%. The entire market has not witnessed the frenzied scenes of altcoins experiencing 'hundredfold miracles' typical of traditional bull markets.
2 | ETF Funds Pour In, Institutions as the Behind-the-Scenes Drivers
On July 3, Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $601 million in a single day, setting a new high for the past two months. As of 2025, total ETF inflows have reached $14.4 billion, averaging about $380 million injected daily, with sustained capital driving the underlying momentum for price increases.
Meanwhile, Japanese listed company Metaplanet disclosed that it had repurchased 797 BTC (worth about $96 million), increasing its total holdings to 16,352 BTC, surpassing Tesla to become the largest corporate holder outside North America.
Why is the market so calm? Three major structural reshuffles are happening.
▶ Retail Investors Exit, Institutions Take Control: Player Hierarchies Quietly Change
Data shows that the total amount of CME Bitcoin futures open interest has exceeded $12 billion, a 47% increase compared to the same period last year, reflecting that traditional institutions have become the main force in the game.
The computing power market is also signaling changes: Canaan Technology's total sales power of mining machines reached 5.5 million TH/s in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 62%, but the selling pressure from miners has dropped to an 18-month low—this is closely related to the trend of computing power hosting and institutional mining.
▶ Transformation of Cryptocurrency Narratives: From Speculative Winds to Macro Allocation
According to 10x Research data, the negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock VIX index has reached a historical extreme of -0.73, reinforcing its positioning as a 'safe-haven asset.' In the face of the U.S. Treasury's $956 billion quarterly bond issuance wave, Bitcoin is gradually becoming 'digital gold' to hedge against inflation and fiscal deficits.
Meanwhile, the U.S. (GENIUS Act) and (CLARITY Act) are under congressional review; if passed, they will establish the first compliant custody system for the cryptocurrency industry, which will be a decisive boon for institutional entry.
▶ Market Sentiment Indicators Convey Unusual Signals
Currently, the 'Fear and Greed Index' has risen to 73, while the Google search heat is only 45. Historical data shows that when this type of 'high sentiment, low attention' combination occurs, it often conceals volatility risks. The market may be entering a 'seemingly rational yet actually high-risk' critical point.
Three major risks for future trends cannot be ignored.
1 | Technical Risks: $125,000 is a Key Watershed
Currently, this price level has accumulated up to $3.7 billion in options contracts, becoming the battlefield for bulls and bears. If the price cannot effectively break through, it may trigger a short-term pullback.
2 | A Policy Storm Approaches: Trade War and Regulatory Confrontation May Disturb the Market
July 22 is the deadline for the Trump administration's tariffs on the EU and Mexico. If trade conflicts escalate, it may trigger a downward correlation between U.S. stocks and cryptocurrency assets. At the same time, if the (anti-CBDC bill) is passed, it may also limit the interface between central bank digital currencies and cryptocurrencies.
3 | Mining Ecosystem Pressure Intensifies: Profit Margins Eroded
Despite the rapid growth in computing power, Canaan Technology's financial report shows that its mining machine gross profit margin has dropped from 42% in the same period last year to 29%, indicating that the competition has significantly compressed mining profitability.
4 | Liquidity Bubble Risks Rise: Rapid USDT Issuance Raises Alarm
Recently, Tether increased its issuance by $4 billion in a single week, pushing the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) above 1.2, indicating that leverage funds may be accumulating, which could trigger a chain reaction if the market adjusts.
Three Possible Scenarios for Future Trends
Scenario 1: Regulatory Implementation Ignites 'Compliance Bull Market'
If the (GENIUS Act) is officially passed, traditional asset management institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity may increase their Bitcoin allocation ratio from the current 0.3% to 1%, meaning that up to $80 billion in funds are expected to flow in, accelerating the push towards the $150,000 target.
Scenario 2: The U.S. Debt Crisis Leads to 'Gold Alternatives'
The U.S. Treasury estimates that interest expenditures will reach $1.6 trillion in 2025. When the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 4.5%, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold is expected to rise to 0.6, attracting conservative capital, including sovereign wealth funds, to enter for hedging.
Scenario 3: Layer 2 Networks Bring Structural Value Reassessment
Merlin Chain's TVL has surpassed $3.5 billion, with Stacks ecosystem locking increasing by over 300% monthly. Once the L2 scaling bottleneck is broken, Bitcoin may leap from 'value storage' to 'next-generation internet underlying asset.'
Conclusion: The calmer the bull market, the more dangerous and profound it is.
In 2025, Bitcoin stood at $120,000, with a Google search index of only 45, while the fear and greed index soared to 73. This 'rational frenzy,' devoid of fireworks and cheers, essentially represents the cryptocurrency market's systemic evolution from retail to institutional, from speculation to value, from local to global.
Ten years ago, noise represented heat;
Today, silence often signifies a deep capital strategy.
History never repeats itself, but it always rhymes. True opportunities often hide in the depths of low sentiment.