#BTC再创新高
Unknowingly, these past few days, the big pancake has continued to set new highs
It has now broken through the 120,000 mark.
The old short-sellers
Have already begun to restrain their restless hearts.
The market has drawn a triangular area based on two rounds of bull markets
It has exceeded the previous rehearsal range
There is a need to reassess the current market trend.
How will the market likely move in the future?
The experience from the two rounds of bull markets can no longer predict
It is necessary to expand the vision to the context of three rounds of bull markets
It has been found that a channel of alternating bulls and bears has formed.
Referencing the K-line data from previous rounds of bull markets
Future movements within the channel can be forecasted in three scenarios.
First, the duration of previous bull markets lasted about 4 months
The increase ranged between 80% to 120%.
The current bull market has lasted from April to now,
3 months have already passed,
With an increase of about 70%.
Thus, generally, this round of market is expected to reach August
An anticipated increase of 80% is relatively reliable.
This round still has at least 10% upward potential.
Combining
1) Binance's continuous user acquisition efforts until now
And the WEB3 streamer policy
There are still many potential users who want to join but have not yet entered.
2) The launch of OKX
3) Strong resource information from the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury, Trump, Musk, etc., frequently interacting with the crypto space
Has already and will continue to create a siphoning effect on funds in society.
The fundamental momentum likely supports the above conclusions.
Based on the above judgments
Three scenarios can be forecasted in terms of time and increase:
1) Conservative estimate:
A major peak may occur in early August, reaching 135,000.
2) Steady estimate:
A major peak may occur in mid to late August, reaching 150,000.
3) Optimistic estimate:
A major peak may occur in late August or the end of August, potentially reaching 165,000.
Based on the above three forecast scenarios
The following investment tone can be set:
1) Before early August, the mainstream approach should be to go long, buying on dips;
Focus on emerging altcoins,
Seize the opportunity for more than 10 times returns
And the possibility of doubling the account
Is relatively high.
2) From early August to mid-August, appropriately take profits for a long-short balance,
If it breaks through 150,000,
And does not stabilize with signs of a pullback,
A large position long can take 50% profit.
If there is still a continued upward trend,
Then focus on altcoins that have not yet taken off.
3) From late August to the end of August, take profits when the opportunity arises,
Especially if it approaches above 165,000,
You can go to cash or focus on shorting, selling on highs.