Written by: shushu
After Bitcoin began to rise steadily near $98,000 on June 22, BTC broke through $120,000 today, hitting a new historical high.
Source: TradingView
Under the resonance of multiple macroeconomic and industry internal factors, the driving force of this round of market is far from being explained by a single event. From the corporate purchase wave, policy game, technology stock linkage, to the change in investor structure and the evolution of market sentiment, this round of Bitcoin rise is not only a leap in price, but also an epitome of the re-evaluation of the status of crypto assets.
Institutional buying frenzy, Bitcoin price momentum unabated
The continuous increase in institutional holdings has become one of the core driving forces of this round of price promotion. According to ARK Invest's June (Bitcoin Monthly) report, the proportion of Bitcoin held by long-term currency holders has climbed to 74%, the highest level in 15 years. This indicator shows that although the activity of new buyers has declined in the short term, 'diamond hands' are still firmly holding and continuing to increase positions in low volatility ranges.
On July 9th, Glassnode posted on social media that the Bitcoin RHODL Ratio has started to rise and has reached its highest level in this cycle. This signal indicates that the market structure is changing, with more wealth being controlled by single-cycle holders, while short-term activity from 1 day to 3 months remains low. Historically, such turning points often foreshadow market cycle transitions and cooling speculative momentum.
The RHODL Ratio is an on-chain Bitcoin metric used to measure the difference in Bitcoin holdings between short-term and long-term holders, thereby analyzing market cycles and investor behavior.
Source: Glassnode
At the same time, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has accumulated more than 700,000 BTC, accounting for about 3.33%. Bloomberg data shows that the annualized management fee income of the ETF has surpassed BlackRock's own flagship product - S&P 500 ETF (IVV), becoming a profitable sample for traditional financial institutions to enter the Bitcoin market.
Since July, a 'Bitcoin Nacu' trend led by US-listed companies has been rapidly spreading, especially among those transforming from traditional industries such as hotels, real estate, and food. Mexican hotel and real estate operator Murano (NASDAQ: MRNO) announced the launch of a Bitcoin reserve strategy, signed a standby equity purchase agreement (SEPA) of up to $500 million, and has purchased 21 BTC, planning to increase asset liquidity and convert it into long-term crypto reserves by selling real estate and introducing Bitcoin payments. Meanwhile, Japanese hotel chain operator Metaplanet has increased its holdings twice in just a few days from the end of June to the beginning of July, with total Bitcoin holdings exceeding 2,200, explicitly transforming into a treasury-type company with BTC as its core reserve.
In addition to the hotel industry, more heterogeneous companies are also restructuring their balance sheets with Bitcoin. DDC (NYSE: DDC), a food and culture group headquartered in the Cayman Islands and operating across China, Hong Kong, and the United States, announced that it has purchased another 230 Bitcoins and included them in its long-term strategic asset allocation; American medical technology company Semler Scientific and Swedish quantitative trader Hilbert Group also completed Bitcoin increases or obtained financing for this purpose during the same period. Chip and Web3 infrastructure manufacturer Nano Labs, Shenzhen traditional manufacturer Addentax Group, travel technology company Webus, and veteran crypto custody platform Bakkt have also announced or promoted reserve strategies with digital assets such as Bitcoin, BNB, and XRP as the core, with amounts ranging from millions to billions of dollars.
These companies have different backgrounds and a wide range of industries, but they have come together under the trend of Bitcoin assetization - jointly regarding digital assets as key levers for liquidity management, anti-inflation hedging, and capital appreciation, confirming that the trend of Bitcoin as a 'corporate-level reserve asset' is accelerating from the technology finance circle to a wider range of real economy fields.
The logic behind this is not difficult to understand. Against the backdrop of global inflation expectations cooling down and the Fed's interest rate hike cycle coming to an end, some companies and institutional investors are re-evaluating their asset allocation models, and the value of Bitcoin is being emphasized again. Especially in the current situation where the yields of traditional safe-haven tools - such as gold and long-term US bonds - are no longer attractive, Bitcoin with high liquidity and a global pricing mechanism is given more room for imagination beyond the function of digital gold.
The current rise of Bitcoin is closely related to the synchronous strengthening of the US stock technology sector. AI and semiconductor companies represented by Nvidia have driven the Nasdaq index to new highs, which has indirectly strengthened the market's risk appetite. Yesterday, Nvidia's market value briefly exceeded $4 trillion, bringing a strong spillover effect to the stock market. In this context, Bitcoin and technology stocks show a highly positive correlation, and its role as a risk asset has been further strengthened.
Source: Jinshi Data
This linkage is not accidental, but is based on the result of changes in investor structure. In recent years, traditional stock investors are migrating to the crypto market, and they use ETFs, futures and compliant exchanges as carriers to project risk appetite and growth expectations onto Bitcoin. Coinbase and Strategy (MSTR) and other stocks closely related to Bitcoin have also risen significantly recently, indicating that investors regard Bitcoin and the technology sector as 'future-driven assets'.
It is worth noting that policy expectations have also played a key role in market expectation management. Although the possibility of the US government establishing a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' has significantly decreased in the prediction market, the continuous fermentation of related topics in public opinion still forms a psychological suggestion to investors. With 'Crypto Week' in 2025 about to be held in Washington, the market generally expects that crypto assets will receive more positive guidance within the regulatory framework, especially on issues such as Bitcoin being included in corporate financial statements and state government purchase plans, the gray areas of policy are being gradually clarified.
In addition, from the observation of on-chain data, the capital structure of the Bitcoin market shows more institutionalized characteristics. According to Coinglass data, around the time Bitcoin hit a new high, about $340 million in short positions were liquidated in just four hours. This phenomenon has occurred many times in the 2021 bull market, indicating that a large number of high-leverage speculative positions were quickly pushed out in a strong market, forming a technical short squeeze. Although the price push caused by such leverage liquidation has short-term characteristics, the market signal it releases is extremely clear: the short power is weakened, and the upward trend is established.
At the same time, although the overall liquidity has not fully recovered to the peak state of 2021, on-chain indicators such as MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) show that the current market is still in a structural upward channel. ARK's report pointed out that although capital flows have cooled down compared to the beginning of the second quarter, long-term capital is still entering the market at a stable pace.
Policy assistance, Crypto Week is coming
Not only is the capital market boosting the price of Bitcoin, but the US policy side will also usher in Crypto Week. On July 4th, David Sacks, the White House crypto currency and artificial intelligence director, and 'crypto czar' posted that the week of July 14th is the House of Representatives crypto currency week: (GENIUS Act) is about to be delivered to the President. And (CLARITY Act) (American Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) is also about to be delivered to the Senate.
From a macro perspective, the strong dollar should have suppressed crypto assets, but Bitcoin has shown significant counter-cyclical resilience. The Federal Reserve's 'Nominal Broad Trade-Weighted Dollar Index' continues to rise, challenging the mainstream logic of 'dollar devaluation promotes Bitcoin's rise'. However, Bitcoin has still risen during this period, indicating that its trend has gradually broken away from reliance on a single macro factor and exhibits characteristics of multi-factor interwoven driving. This trend may mean that Bitcoin is transitioning from a 'narrative asset' to a 'fundamental asset'.
It is worth mentioning that although the inflation level is gradually falling, investors' traditional impression of Bitcoin as 'anti-inflation' is weakening, but the rebound in risk appetite brought about by the expected reduction in the federal funds rate has become a realistic driving force for a new round of rise. In the traditional market, risk varieties such as technology stocks, growth assets, and equity of start-ups have performed strongly, and Bitcoin has naturally benefited from it.
The sluggish real estate market has also indirectly promoted capital's preference for liquid assets. ARK pointed out in the report that the current US real estate market has a serious divergence between expectations and transactions, the psychological expectations of homeowners are too high, and the actual transaction volume continues to decline. This lack of liquidity under 'price rigidity' has caused some of the funds originally allocated to real estate to start looking for assets with more price elasticity. Bitcoin's 24/7 trading and cross-border pricing mechanism have become the preferred exit for this type of funds.
Overall, this round of Bitcoin's breakthrough to historical highs is the product of multiple factors intertwined. It benefits from macro trends such as the surge in technology stocks, easing liquidity, and corporate asset reallocation, and also reflects the structural advantages of Bitcoin itself 'institutional neutrality, supply certainty, and strong liquidity'. Under this complex structure, the market trend can no longer be explained by a single narrative framework, but requires a comprehensive analysis from multiple dimensions such as capital structure, policy expectations, and investor behavior.
Looking to the future, although there is a risk of price correction in the short term, especially in the context of lack of new buying support after the liquidation of shorts, the market may enter a technical consolidation. However, from a medium-to-long-term perspective, under the multiple trends of corporate purchases becoming mainstream, crypto regulation gradually becoming clear, and risk asset sentiment rebounding, Bitcoin is still expected to usher in a new upward cycle in the second half of 2025, and its position as a global digital value anchor will become more stable.
