Bitcoin ($BTC) Weekly Technical Analysis | 2025.7.14 Market Overview

$BTC is currently around 119K, in a price discovery phase, with LTF price action being unclear and high volatility. The weekend high has been swept, and the market faces a crucial choice: bullish breakout, retest of the CME gap, or drop towards 115K. Below is the technical and on-chain analysis: Technical Analysis Key Levels: Resistance: 120K-121K (new oscillation range).

CME Gap: 117K-118K.

Support: 115,400.

Scenarios: Bullish: Breakout above 119.5K, target new ATH or 120K-121K.

Retest: Pullback to 117K-118K, fill the CME gap.

Bearish: Break below the gap, target 115.4K.

Indicators: RSI close to overbought (~70), upper Bollinger Band under pressure, increased volume supports bullish momentum but caution is needed for a pullback.

On-Chain Data Exchange inflows are slowing, selling pressure is limited.

Long-term holders are selling less, institutional interest drives prices upward.

Market Dynamics Fed rate cut expectations boost risk assets.

X platform sentiment is divided: some bullish at 125K, some concerned about a pullback.

Trading Strategy Bullish: Go long on breakout above 119.5K, target 120K, stop loss at 118.5K.

Bearish: Retest 117K-118K, short-term buy or wait for a drop to 115.4K.

Risk Management: Position size controlled at 1-2%, combined with RSI and volume to validate signals.

Conclusion

$BTC's short-term direction is unclear; attention is needed on breakout above 119.5K or support at 117K. Stay flexible and manage risks strictly. What are your thoughts?