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M Adnan Shamshad

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Your analysis highlights an important shift in market sentiment — here’s a breakdown and what to watch for next: 🔻 Price Breakdown Failed Support: Bitcoin has broken below the $118,000 support level — a key line that bulls needed to defend. Correction Underway: This confirms the correction we anticipated after the overextended rally and symmetrical triangle breakout. 🔁 Retest Scenario Revisit $118,000–$118,500 Zone: This range now acts as resistance, not support. A rejection here would confirm bearish pressure. A break above and reclaim of this zone with volume could suggest a fakeout and resume the uptrend. 📉 Next Downside Target If rejected: Expect downward momentum to increase, with a potential drop to the $115,000 level, a prior consolidation zone and psychological round number. Further weakness might open the door to $112,500 or lower, depending on macro and ETF flows. 🧠 Key Considerations Volume Profile: Watch for declining buy volume on any bounce — it could signal lack of conviction from bulls. Market Sentiment: ETF inflows have slowed, and broader risk appetite appears to be cooling. Late buyers may start exiting. Macro Backdrop: Keep an eye on CPI/Fed narrative shifts, which could exacerbate volatility. $BTC $WCT $XRP

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This is a sharp observation and carries important implications for market sentiment and positioning. Let's break it down: 🔍 Analysis of the Situation 1. BTC ETF Flows (7D SMA) Slowing: The 7-day simple moving average (SMA) of Bitcoin inflows into US Spot ETFs is declining. This is not typical behavior during an aggressive price move upward, especially after the strong demand seen post-ETF approval. It suggests that institutional or retail ETF investors are cautious — either taking profit, sidelined by uncertainty, or skeptical of sustainability. 2. Traders Missing the Rally: Low inflows and lack of aggressive long positioning in futures or spot may indicate that many traders are underexposed. This could lead to underperformance anxiety and performance chasing if the rally sustains. 3. FOMO Brewing: As BTC continues higher and key levels are broken, sidelined capital (both ETF and retail) may rush in late. That creates late-stage FOMO, which often precedes sharp corrections or at least volatile shakeouts. 🧠 What This Could Mean Going Forward Bullish scenario: If fresh buyers do chase in, we could see a blow-off top, temporarily driven by momentum and emotion. Bearish scenario: If BTC stalls and those late entrants are trapped, a sharp correction could follow, especially if ETF inflows remain flat or turn negative. Neutral/strategic view: Smart money might be waiting for the FOMO spike to offload risk or rotate capital. The rally’s strength without ETF support implies either low conviction or non-ETF sources of demand (e.g., Asia, whales, or on-chain movement). 📊 Watchlist Net ETF Flows (daily + 7D SMA) BTC dominance and on-chain accumulation Volume divergence (price up, volume down = caution) Social sentiment spikes (X, Reddit, etc.) Funding rates and open interest in perpetuals/futures $BTC $XRP $BNB $

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This type of analysis suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook on Bitcoin's current price action. Here's a breakdown of the key points and what they could mean: 📈 Technical Summary: Breakout: Bitcoin has broken above a symmetrical triangle pattern — a neutral-to-bullish signal depending on the trend context. Since it broke upward, this is interpreted as bullish. Volume Return: Increasing volume confirms the validity of the breakout, showing genuine market participation. Correction Warning: Despite the upward move, a pullback is possible — this is a common market behavior after breakouts as traders take profit or test support. 📉 Key Support Levels: $118,000 – First immediate support, likely to be tested if a pullback happens. $115,000 – Deeper support level, potentially a stronger buying zone. ⚠️ Strategy Insight: Avoid rushing into new longs: The market may be overextended short-term. Wait for confirmation: Let the price retest support levels or consolidate before entering. Risk management is crucial — especially around high volatility events like breakouts. $BTC $XRP $SOL

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