The current path two is still progressing steadily. Although the weekly divergence structure in path three may still be possible, the probability is gradually decreasing over time;

At the moment, the position of this weekly line, from a channel structure perspective, is similar to the structures in February and November 2024, both being in the mid-stage of a bullish trend;

However, the difference is that both the trading volume and spot premium are lower than the former.

In other words, while path two is currently underway, it seems that there are also some hidden risks, such as if the price reaches the weekly overbought line (red line) again or cannot fully reach it for other reasons. If the price retraces again, it could potentially mark the top of this trend phase...

As for the bull market, as long as it does not break below the upper yellow line of the weekly oscillation channel in the future, the bull market will continue!

I still recommend not to overly predict the future direction of the world and to focus on the specific price fluctuations. In the broader structure, prioritizing the judgment logic on the right side is always more prudent than on the left side!