Last night @pumpdotfun raised 600 million USD in 13 minutes, I think it can be said that in the industry, this kind of public fundraising can rank among the top, but to be honest, the vast majority of people are actually not optimistic about http://pump.fun, especially not optimistic about the team behind it which frequently cashes out and lacks any vision.
Let's just briefly talk about this matter.
1. Actually, http://pump.fun currently still holds a position in Solana, but it has been seriously impacted by @bonk_fun.
I looked up some data.
You see, now Bonk has already surpassed Pump in daily revenue (Figure 1), and now you see in Solana, Bonk's daily share has recently also slowly exceeded Pump (Figure 2), so Pump feels a sense of crisis. Especially since many of Pump's former allies are now starting to side with Bonk.
The reason why Bonk can turn the tide against Pump, I think the biggest point is that Bonk takes a more community-oriented approach, using 50% of protocol revenue to buy back $BONK tokens, and then $BONK keeps rising, boosting community confidence.
But look at Pump again, this team has been continuously selling the SOL earned from transaction fees, selling 4.1 million SOL from May 2024 to June this year, which can be said to have brought some negative impact to the overall SOL market, and Pump has been heavily criticized.
So compared to that, BONK is you play your game, I make money and share it with the brothers, Pump is you play your game, I make money and keep it for myself, compare this pattern.
The largest group of users supporting the Solana community is actually dog fighting players, who are more aligned with the community and DAO ideology, so it's needless to say which side the users are on, and if Pump continues like this, it will lose users and market.
So at this critical moment, what does issuing tokens aim for? I think the main goal is to regain the community; previously there was no platform token, now that there is, I can buy back and contribute to the community, so stop criticizing me.
However, I think given Pump's team's typical behavior and style, a deeper purpose might be to make some money while there is still heat, one is to use this token issuance to create some market excitement and leave a bit of fantasy, suggesting that there might be more actions or airdrops, and see if you can attract back some market.
Right now, Pump looks a bit like the old @opensea, while Bonk resembles LooksRare and x2yx (which old NFT players are familiar with).
2. The $PUMP token does not rule out the possibility of a high opening and low closing in the future.
The market actually has some expectations for the http://pump.fun platform.
I remember a month ago Pump's CEO mentioned a buyback plan, but until now it seems still unclear how the buyback will be executed and what the rules are.
However, if there continues to be no clear buyback plan (which does not meet the Solana community's expectations), the team continues to sell SOL, and doesn't have the same strong community support from BONK with effective incentives, it will actually lead to poor performance in the $PUMP market. Because you are just standing up there high, don't end up pulling a big one.
Have you seen how many so-called star projects in the market have high openings and low closings? For example, Eigenlayer.
3. Currently, BONK is constantly destroying and buying back tokens, with an overall market cap of about 2 billion USD, and the current token circulation is 72.5% (with 10% already destroyed), considering the destroyed tokens, the FDV is roughly around 2.5 billion USD.
The valuation for this round of PUMP ICO is calculated at 4 billion USD, with 150 billion PUMP tokens being issued in this round, priced at 0.004 USDT, accounting for 15% of the total supply, with total financing of 600 million USD. However, I think this 4 billion USD valuation seems somewhat inflated considering the current market situation, market expectations for Pump, and the data of competing tokens.
