Bitcoin, the first digital currency and also the most prominent 'digital gold' in the crypto world, is always known for its hard cap of 21 million coins, which creates special appeal. However, by 2025, the scarcity of Bitcoin is no longer just a theory; it is becoming a clear reality in the market. 93% of the total Bitcoin has been mined, and the reduction in rewards for miners after the fourth halving last April has led to an increasingly small number of new BTC entering circulation daily.
Another important factor is that the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors is increasingly large. Along with that, the number of BTC stored in cold wallets of institutions, or lost, is rising, making liquidity in the market scarcer than ever. According to some data, about 70% of the current total Bitcoin supply has not been moved in at least a year. This raises questions about Bitcoin's availability and warns of the risk of a potential 'supply shock'.
Market analysts are currently pointing out that as Bitcoin's supply becomes increasingly tight and demand from ETF funds, public companies, or even national investment funds rises, a 'supply shock' may occur. This is when BTC on exchanges becomes too scarce relative to market demand, which could lead to strong price volatility.
Michael Saylor's Bitcoin Strategy: Continuous Accumulation.
Michael Saylor, the founder and chairman of Strategy, has turned Bitcoin accumulation into a resolute long-term strategy. Since 2020, he has not only recognized Bitcoin's potential but has also transformed this software company into a comprehensive BTC storage tool. He has utilized every financial means, from borrowing, issuing shares to using company cash to continuously buy more Bitcoin, making Strategy one of the largest 'whales' in the crypto market.
As of mid-2025, the company holds 597,325 BTC, equivalent to over 2.84% of the total Bitcoin supply. And this strategy shows no signs of stopping. Each month, Strategy continues to increase its Bitcoin reserves. This strong and determined approach has raised concerns about a Bitcoin supply crisis in the near future. The accumulation of large volumes of Bitcoin by whales like Strategy means that the amount of coins available on exchanges is becoming increasingly scarce, resulting in diminished liquidity, especially for new participants or retail traders wanting to buy in.
With a massive amount of Bitcoin holdings, Strategy is now leading the public rankings for BTC reserves, surpassing both the United States and China combined. Their reserves are even nearly 12 times larger than those of MARA Holdings, the closest BTC holder in the market.
Bitcoin supply meets institutional demand.
Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative tool for retail investors. It has now become a sought-after asset by large institutions, with strong demand from investment funds, banks, and large corporations. This shift is gradually changing the market landscape, as Bitcoin has transitioned from being a speculative 'tool' for individual investors to a significant asset in institutional investment portfolios.
In particular, the emergence and development of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the United States and many other countries have opened new investment opportunities for large institutions. A notable example is BlackRock's IBIT fund, which achieved a net cash flow of $430 million per day by the end of May 2025, peaking at $6.35 billion in one month – the highest ever. As institutions invest through these ETFs, the underlying Bitcoin is transferred into cold storage, leading to withdrawals from exchanges, thereby tightening liquidity supply in the market.
Especially, the large demand from these institutions makes the supply-demand imbalance of Bitcoin more apparent. Not only technology companies or large investors but even conservative banks are gradually viewing Bitcoin as a long-term investment channel, contributing to increased pressure on the limited supply of this currency.
A notable example is on May 27, Trump Media and Technology Group, the parent company of President Donald Trump's Truth Social, announced a $2.5 billion funding round to acquire Bitcoin, reversing the company's previous denial claims. At the same time, GameStop also announced a $500 million investment in Bitcoin.
Not only limited to large companies, names like Tether, SoftBank, and Jack Mallers (CEO of Strike) have announced the launch of the public company Twenty One, with over 42,000 BTC on its balance sheet, becoming the third-largest Bitcoin holding company globally.
Bitcoin Halving and the accumulation of 'whales'.
The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced the reward for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, shrinking the new supply entering the market. This, along with the increasing demand from large institutions, has created a strong and complex movement in the Bitcoin market, where a few large players hold the majority of the currency's supply, leading to both optimistic and pessimistic assessments.
The Bitcoin halving cycle occurs approximately every four years, when the reward for miners is cut in half. After the halving in April 2024, the reward for each mined block will be reduced to 3.125 BTC, decreasing the rate of new Bitcoin issuance and helping to reduce the inflation rate of this currency to below 1% per year. This is a significant event not only technically but also in terms of Bitcoin's value in the market.
However, it is noteworthy that this halving occurs at a very special time, when demand for Bitcoin is rising sharply and the accumulation from whales as well as large institutions is becoming increasingly apparent. As of June 2025, only about 450 BTC are released into the market daily, while MicroStrategy alone has purchased more Bitcoin than this number each week. This creates a clear imbalance in supply and demand, further increasing pressure on Bitcoin's value.
Not only Strategy, but there are also many large public wallets linked to organizations like Grayscale, Binance, and ETF custody funds holding a large portion of Bitcoin in the market. As of 2025, only the top 100 addresses controlled about 15% of the total Bitcoin supply, with wallets holding over 10,000 BTC accounting for up to 14% of the total circulating coins. This means that a large portion of Bitcoin is being controlled by a small group, raising concerns about ownership concentration and its impact on the network's original decentralization.
Some critics argue that this concentration could lead to market control by 'whales', reducing fairness and transparency. They worry that wealthy entities could manipulate Bitcoin's value for profit, which goes against Bitcoin's original ideals as a decentralized and unregulated asset.
However, some others see this as a sign of confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value. These 'whales' are not trading with the goal of quick profits; rather, they are holding Bitcoin as a long-term investment, trusting in the growth potential of this digital currency in the future.
Liquidity crisis: Will Bitcoin run out?
Although the concept of 'Bitcoin depletion' is not entirely accurate, it can be said that Bitcoin's supply may be difficult to trade or deplete in the short term due to certain factors.
A common misconception is that Bitcoin will completely disappear from circulation and become untradeable. However, the truth is that Bitcoin will not 'deplete' in the sense of completely disappearing from the market. The real issue here is the liquidity crisis, as a large portion of Bitcoin is held offline, in cold wallets, or through ETFs, severely limiting the amount of Bitcoin available for trading. This could make buying and selling Bitcoin difficult and inefficient.
Current on-chain data shows that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped to their lowest levels in years. As of June 2025, Bitcoin's market share on exchanges has fallen below 11% of the total supply, the lowest since early 2018. This could lead to a 'dry market', where any small change in demand could have a strong impact on supply, thereby causing even stronger price volatility.
Will the Bitcoin supply shock occur in 2025?
It can certainly be said that the Bitcoin liquidity crisis has been and is ongoing, but it is not an immediate 'explosion'. Signs of supply depletion have been present for a long time. From miners receiving fewer rewards after each halving, to large institutions increasing their Bitcoin purchases, and whales holding Bitcoin without selling, pressure is increasingly building on the circulating supply.
But whether this will create a price surge depends on new demand from investors. If demand continues to surge from individual investors, businesses, or even countries, the limited Bitcoin supply could create a feedback loop, causing Bitcoin's value to rise sharply and demand to increase even more.
Michael Saylor states:
"In the long term, having Bitcoin on the balance sheet has proven its superior popularity."
Since Strategy began buying Bitcoin in August 2020, BTC's price has skyrocketed by 700%, an impressive figure that reflects institutional confidence in Bitcoin's value. This bold accumulation has not only yielded massive profits for the company itself but has also created a strong wave of adoption from other institutions and businesses.
Although Bitcoin cannot be completely 'depleted', the increasing scarcity due to a large volume of Bitcoin being held offline and institutions, whales accumulating, could potentially create a liquidity crisis in the market. The Bitcoin market may become susceptible to minor fluctuations in demand, leading to strong price volatility.
With the increasing participation of large institutions and rising demand, Bitcoin is likely to continue experiencing strong price increases in the future. The loop of restricted supply and increased demand will continue to reinforce the confidence and value of Bitcoin globally.
The scarcity of Bitcoin is tested in real time.
Scarcity has always been the core factor creating Bitcoin's value, but now, it is no longer just a theoretical concept. With factors such as reduced supply, strong institutional accumulation of BTC, and decreasing rewards for miners, Bitcoin is entering a challenging and potentially fruitful phase.
Investment inflows from institutions are increasing, and everyday users are finding it increasingly difficult to purchase Bitcoin at reasonable prices without high premiums. This creates a clear supply shock, driving up Bitcoin's price in an increasingly scarce market. However, this scarcity arises not only from technical factors but also from investors' perceptions.
As large institutions such as Strategy, Tesla, and Bitcoin ETF funds continue to accumulate, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has significantly decreased, creating an increasingly apparent scarcity. This not only causes a supply shock but also increases investors' awareness that Bitcoin will become a less available asset, thereby creating upward price pressure.
However, the macroeconomic context is very important and cannot be overlooked:
Global interest rates remain high: This creates pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin, reducing liquidity and demand in the market.
Governments and regulations: Global governments still do not have a consistent approach to Bitcoin, with many concerns about regulatory and environmental (ESG) issues. This could hinder the strong development of the Bitcoin market if not clearly addressed.
Gold remains the primary reserve asset: Central banks still prefer gold as a reserve asset. In 2024 alone, over 1,000 tons of gold were added to global reserves, showing that gold remains firm in its position as a 'safe haven' during periods of instability.
Can Bitcoin replace gold to become the number one store of value asset? The current answer may be no. However, 2025 marks an important milestone: for the first time in history, Bitcoin's scarcity is becoming clearer, stronger supply dynamics, and broader application prospects compared to gold. Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but is being viewed as a long-term store of value option, with many large institutions entering the market.
Investors, regulators, and everyday users should closely monitor the developments in the Bitcoin market in the coming period. If whales like Saylor and large organizations continue to accumulate Bitcoin, and if demand from individual and institutional investors continues to rise, the real question may not be whether a supply shock occurs, but how high Bitcoin's price will rise when this happens.
In summary, we are witnessing the real test of Bitcoin's scarcity. And with the current signs, it seems that price increases and shortages will be the dominant factors in the Bitcoin market in the coming years.