Last weekend, the crypto market witnessed a strong recovery of Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency suddenly surged to a new all-time high of nearly 119,000 USD. This was a powerful push that surprised many Short traders, as this asset had gone through a long period of slow volatility. Although there was no major announcement that could directly explain this price increase, many previously accumulating factors contributed to this breakout, opening new prospects for Bitcoin.
Factors pushing Bitcoin's price beyond new thresholds
The surge of Bitcoin is not a random phenomenon, but the result of many gradually accumulating factors coming from various directions. These factors can be collectively referred to as 'overall accumulation.' Although each factor has its distinct impact, they all aim at a common goal: to drive the value of Bitcoin.
One of the most important recent factors is the strong participation of Bitcoin ETFs trading in the US. Recently, these ETFs have attracted over 2.7 billion USD in just 5 trading days. This shows increasing interest from investors, and the inflow of capital into these funds shows no signs of slowing down. The main reason is the confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential, especially as in just two days (July 10 and 11), investors poured over 2 billion USD into Bitcoin ETF stocks.
In addition to ETF funds, large companies are also increasing their holdings of Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Names like Strategy, Metaplanet, GameStop, and Semler Scientific have been buying billions of dollars in BTC over the past few months. Although these transactions do not immediately increase Bitcoin's value, this continuous accumulation helps reduce selling pressure and lays the groundwork for a price recovery.
Besides large institutions, retail investors are also crucial. According to a report from Glassnode, investors holding less than 100 BTC (referred to as 'shrimp' and 'crabs') have purchased over 19,000 BTC each month. Meanwhile, the amount of BTC released by miners is only about 13,400 BTC per month. This shows that demand for Bitcoin is increasing, and retail investors are accumulating strongly, while reducing the supply in the market.
Another important signal indicating confidence in Bitcoin is the significant decrease in the amount of BTC stored on exchanges. According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of BTC on trading platforms has fallen to its lowest level in a decade. The withdrawal of BTC from exchanges by investors is a clear sign that they are holding Bitcoin for the long term and have no intention of selling it in the short term.
The above factors clearly indicate that investors are strategically accumulating Bitcoin. However, the question arises as to why they are doing this? Let's analyze further.
Although President Donald Trump has continuously imposed new tariffs on many countries and the entire Union in recent weeks, including last weekend, the impact of these policies on Bitcoin is currently not as strong as the price drop in April. At that time, Bitcoin's price plummeted to its lowest level in 5 months. However, currently, these tariffs seem to have a positive impact on Bitcoin, as this cryptocurrency is considered a safe haven asset in the context of economic instability.
Analysts from QCP state:
"Will Trump continue to postpone implementing tariffs? The answer remains to be seen. However, the continuous cycles of threats and tariff delays have created a positive uncertainty. This helps reinforce business sentiment and maintain production indicators in the growth zone."
Additionally, an important factor that cannot be overlooked is the weakening of the US dollar. The US dollar index has dropped sharply recently, creating significant opportunities for alternative assets such as gold and Bitcoin. Experts have long predicted that when the dollar loses momentum, Bitcoin will experience strong growth. Investors often shift to value-storing assets during times of fiat currency weakness.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at Nansen, shared that although he does not believe the current price increase is primarily due to macroeconomic events, he cannot deny that some recent US policies have contributed to this trend. He stated:
"Recent financial policies of the United States, along with expectations of monetary easing, have created an extremely favorable context for Bitcoin."
In summary, the accumulation by investors is not a random phenomenon. It is a combination of many factors from macroeconomic policies, the weakening of the dollar, and other elements, creating an ideal context for Bitcoin to develop more strongly.
Could Bitcoin reach 146,000 USD?
The big question now is whether current factors are strong enough to continue pushing Bitcoin's price higher. Analysts from Bitfinex show optimism, but also caution.
"Unless the ETF capital suddenly drops or there is a significant change in the macroeconomic situation, Bitcoin's growth structure will remain intact. Currently, Bitcoin has shifted the price range from 111,000–114,000 USD into a solid support level. As long as this level is maintained, the upward trend will continue strongly. For traders, the message is very clear: focus on capital flows, monitor capital withdrawals, and adjust strategies around important resistance levels of Bitcoin."
However, analysts also warn that 'no price increase occurs in a straight line.' They believe that Bitcoin may need to undergo a temporary correction before continuing its upward trend, as signs of 'exhaustion' have begun to appear in the market.
Sondergaard from Nansen also has interesting views on the sustainable strength of Bitcoin in this context.
"Recently, Bitcoin has surpassed important liquidation levels and held above them, indicating that there is still plenty of room for prices to continue rising."
Technically, he notes that Bitcoin's RSI indicator on the daily chart has surpassed 70 – a level that often appears during strong price increase phases. Nonetheless, he emphasizes that "an increasing RSI during price rallies is normal, but if prices continue to rise while the RSI begins to diverge or drop, this could be the first sign that the upward momentum is weakening and a correction may occur."
According to Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of Alphractal, Bitcoin is currently at a decisive point that could determine the direction of this cryptocurrency in the coming weeks. Based on technical analysis models, the price of Bitcoin could reach an unprecedented high of 143,000 USD if it surpasses the next resistance level.
Wedson stated that Bitcoin is facing strong resistance in the range of 118,900 to 120,000 USD. This assessment is based on the Bitcoin Power Law model, a mathematical model that describes the historical price trends of Bitcoin.
This model estimates the impact of the network effect and provides long-term support and resistance levels, referred to as 'bands' on the Bitcoin price chart. According to him, the Power Law model indicates that Bitcoin will encounter an important resistance level in the range of 118,900 USD to 120,000 USD. To continue the upward trend, the market needs to surpass the Alpha Price level – an important inflection point in the model, around 119,300 USD.
The Alpha Price is the price that Bitcoin needs to exceed and maintain above to enter the next important phase of the growth cycle. Simply put, Bitcoin needs to make a sustainable breakout above 119,300 USD to consolidate the upward momentum and get closer to higher price levels.
According to Wedson, to continue its upward journey, Bitcoin will need to make a strong recovery and surpass the important psychological level of 120,000 USD. However, he also notes that the price may need to consolidate and some long-term traders may need to withdraw from the market before this cryptocurrency can surpass the 120,000 USD threshold.
Wedson believes that if Bitcoin can maintain above 120,000 USD, this will open opportunities for an even stronger price increase, potentially pushing the price up to 143,000 – 146,000 USD. This would be the highest price peak in this cycle, marking a significant turning point in Bitcoin's development.
In summary, Bitcoin is at a crucial decision point. Breaking through the resistance level of 120,000 USD will be the determining factor in whether this cryptocurrency continues its strong upward trend. Investors and traders need to closely monitor market developments, as if Bitcoin maintains firmly at this price level, we could witness an impressive growth surge, opening up new opportunities in its history.