$BTC 1. Price Trends and Market Sentiment

The Bitcoin price today is between 117,645–118,119, a slight pullback of 0.3% from the previous historical high (118,868), but still holding the key support level of 117,000. The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with institutional funds continuing to flow in (such as ETF raising $118 million in a single day), enhancing price stability, with the 30-day volatility dropping to 28%.

2. Key Technical Signals

Support/Resistance Levels: Short-term support is at 116,950 (Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level), falling below this could trigger the liquidation of 775 million long positions; resistance is at 118,000–120,000, breaking this could challenge $125,000.

Indicators: The daily chart shows a “rising triangle” breakout pattern, with MACD golden cross confirming upward momentum, but the hourly chart indicates fluctuations near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a potential need for a short-term pullback.

3. Driving Factors and Risks

Positive Factors: Expectations for US “Crypto Week” policies (such as the CLARITY Act), institutional accumulation (MicroStrategy holds 597,000 BTC), and the halving cycle effect support a long-term bullish outlook.

Risks: Whale movements (potential sale of 20,000 BTC), pressure from derivative liquidations, and macro policy uncertainties (such as Federal Reserve interest rate trends) could trigger short-term volatility.

Summary: BTC is at a critical point of resonance between policy and technical factors; if it holds above 118,000, it could initiate a new round of increases, otherwise, caution is needed for pullback risks below 116,000. Investors are advised to pay attention to policy developments and on-chain data, and respond flexibly.