Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.68 trillion, with BTC accounting for 63.9%, which is $2.35 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $257 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 0.83%, of which USDT accounts for 62.25%. Circle (USDC) applies for a National Trust Bank license in the US to strengthen compliance.
The Trump family's USD1 transaction volume hits a new high, with $1.25 billion traded in 24 hours, second only to USDT and USDC.
This week, BTC price shows a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $118,003; ETH shows a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $3,011.
BTC key price milestones (July 7-11)
Date
Price
Key Driving Factors
July 7
107945
Trump's tariff policy causes market fluctuations
July 10
112000
Brazilian capital flight into safe assets
July 11
118000 (New High)
ETF inflows + short covering
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most rose while a few fell, including: BONK up 37.59% in 7 days, SPX up 32.7% in 7 days, PENGU up 32% in 7 days, MGO up 56% in 7 days, 1INCH up 42% in 7 days.
This week, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US was $2.7143 billion; the net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the US was $907.8 million.
Market Predictions:
This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, with significant net inflows into both US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. Both BTC and ETH are showing fluctuating upward trends. The RSI index is at 62.87, indicating strength. The Fear and Greed Index is at 72 (higher than last week), remaining stable for two consecutive days, reflecting market optimism but not reaching extremes.
This week, the US has implemented Tariff 2.0, imposing tariffs of 20-50% on multiple countries, but the impact on the cryptocurrency market is minimal. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is 72.3%, but remains unchanged in July.
Key attention on the 'Cryptocurrency Week' from July 14-18 in the US, where three major bills including (GENIUS) and (CLARITY) will be reviewed. If passed, BTC may challenge $120,000. If regulatory uncertainty increases, it could pull back to the support level of $108,000-$110,000.
Understand the Present
Review of major events of the week
1. Bitcoin hits a historic new high of $118,000, short covering of $318 million;
2. Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on Brazil (effective August 1), leading to capital flight into BTC;
3. The US 'Cryptocurrency Week' is scheduled for July 14-18, where three major bills including (GENIUS) and (CLARITY) will be reviewed;
4. The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $203 million in a single day, with BlackRock's holdings exceeding $78 billion;
5. ETH ETF inflows reach a quarterly high, Fundstrat raises $250 million to increase ETH holdings;
6. GMX suffered a hack with a loss of $42 million, the team offers a 10% bounty for recovery;
7. XBIT decentralized exchange trading volume surged by 300%, becoming a new choice for risk aversion amid tariff crises;
8. The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes show internal disagreements, cooling rate cut expectations;
9. Data from 85 core stocks in Hong Kong is on-chain, Pyth Network promotes RWA development;
10. Trump's family cryptocurrency project profits exceed $600 million, raising controversies over policy and business interests.
Macroeconomics
United States
1. Fiscal policy: The 'Big Beautiful Plan' (tax cuts + infrastructure) passed the House, which may raise long-term inflation;
2. Monetary policy: The Federal Reserve's probability of a rate cut in September is 72.3%, but remains unchanged in July.
Europe and Asia
Region
Policy Trends
Market Impact
Eurozone
European Central Bank maintains interest rates, hints at delaying rate cuts
Euro under pressure
Japan
Adhere to an ultra-loose policy
Yen depreciation accelerates
China
0.5% rate cut may occur in the second half of the year
Improved liquidity expectations
ETF
According to statistics, from July 7 to July 11, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US was $2.7143 billion; as of July 11, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.338 billion, currently holding $21.724 billion. IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.085 billion. The total market cap of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $150.643 billion.
US Ethereum spot ETF net inflow: $907.8 million.
Forecasting the Future
Upcoming Events
1. Polkadot will hold the Web3 Summit 2025 in Berlin from July 16 to 18;
2. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held on August 28-29 at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Center;
3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan, from August 25 to 26, 2025;
4. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will be held from October 1 to 2, 2025, in Singapore.
Project Progress
1. The trial of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm will be held on July 14, with prosecutors dropping some charges but still pursuing money laundering and some unauthorized fund transfer charges along with violations of the (International Emergency Economic Powers Act);
2. The US Congress will begin voting on three important cryptocurrency-related legislations on July 14, namely (GENIUS Act), (CLARITY Act), and (Anti-CBDC Monitoring State Act);
3. The first phase of Wormhole staking rewards must be claimed before July 15; any unclaimed rewards will be returned to the SRP pool for future reward cycles;
4. Sonic Labs will randomly open the first phase of S token airdrop claims between July 15 and 22;
5. Tuttle submitted an amendment proposing to change the effective date of a batch of 2x leveraged cryptocurrency ETFs to July 16. This does not mean they will definitely be launched, but generally speaking, the effective date is when the ETFs launch. Given that SSK has successfully listed, it is likely that others (similar products) will follow.
Important Events
1. On July 15 at 20:30, the US will release the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for June, impacting Federal Reserve policy expectations;
2. On July 17 at 2:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.
Token Unlocking
1. Starknet (STRK) will unlock 127 million tokens on July 15, valued at approximately $18.54 million, accounting for 3.53% of circulation;
2. Sei (SEI) will unlock 55.56 million tokens on July 15, valued at approximately $17.87 million, accounting for 1% of circulation;
3. Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock 92.65 million tokens on July 16, valued at approximately $38.51 million, accounting for 1.87% of circulation;
4. ZKsync (ZK) will unlock 173 million tokens on July 17, valued at approximately $10.12 million, accounting for 2.42% of circulation;
5. ApeCoin (APE) will unlock 15.58 million tokens on July 17, valued at approximately $10.46 million, accounting for 1.95% of circulation;
6. Fasttoken (FTN) will unlock 20 million tokens on July 18, valued at approximately $89 million, accounting for 4.64% of circulation;
7. OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP) will unlock 906 million tokens on July 18, valued at approximately $913 million, accounting for 9% of circulation.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We build a service system of 'trend judgment + value discovery + real-time tracking', providing precise market interpretations and practical strategies for different levels of investors through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multidimensional assessments of potential projects, and real-time market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly live strategies and daily news briefings.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors understand these risks fully and invest under a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
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