News: Middle East situation becomes the market's 'nuclear button'
War clouds looming (bearish warning)
Iran's supreme leader's advisor confirms receipt of US negotiation signals but states 'no longer trusts the US.' If the US-Israel hardline policy escalates against Iran (e.g., supporting military strikes), geopolitical risks will ignite market panic.
Historical rule: Middle East conflicts often trigger the rise of 'safe-haven assets' like the dollar, while cryptocurrencies face short-term sell-offs (e.g., BTC plummeting 12% in a single day during the 2024 Iran crisis).
Negotiation dawn (Bullish engine)
If the US and Iran return to the nuclear agreement negotiation table (e.g., Trump leans toward diplomatic reconciliation), risk sentiment will reverse. Funds may flow into cryptocurrencies to hedge against fiat currency depreciation, especially ETH with its 'deflationary upgrade + ETF expectations' may lead the surge.
Technical analysis: Full analysis of ETH/BTC critical point
ETH: 2900 is the lifeline, only a step away from 3000!
Current formation:
Triangle convergence continuation: Support at 2900-2930 (dense order price), resistance at 3000-3041 (previous high resistance).
Volume signal: Commission ratio -0.35% shows selling pressure, but the 2968 area has dense orders from the main force; if the volume breaks through 3000, it will open up space.
War outbreak scenario:
Breaking below 2900 support → Down to 2500 (Fibonacci 50% retracement level opens space below 2781).
Smooth negotiation scenario:
Volume breaks through the previous high of 3041 → Attacking 3000+ and stabilizing (confirming the trend if the daily line stabilizes above EMA120).
BTC: 110,000 strong bottom vs 120,000 starry sea!
Current formation:
Rising wedge consolidation: Support at 112182 (38.2% retracement level), resistance at 118472 (key neck line).
Main force movement: Commission ratio +0.10% hides buying interest, 117792 has dense orders; a breakthrough will trigger short covering.
War outbreak scenario:
Breaking below 112182 → Panic selling to below 110,000 (psychological defense line + previous low 109,000).
Smooth negotiation scenario:
Breakthrough 118472 → Rush to 120,000 (wedge target + bullish leverage resonance).
Ultimate strategy: How to bet on the Middle East situation change?
War outbreak plan:
ETH short position entry point: Effectively breaking below 2900, target 2500.
BTC hedging plan: Buy gold ETFs + short BTC perpetual (when funding fee premium is high).
Peace negotiation plan:
ETH long position target: Volume breaks through 3000, target 3200 (2025 high point).
BTC breakthrough signal: After stabilizing above 118472, chase long positions, target 120,000.
Explosion point reminder: Regardless of the negotiation outcome, a direction must be established before July 13! ETH/BTC volatility index surges 300%, keep a close eye on Iran's foreign ministry statement tonight—if 'refusal to negotiate' appears, immediately place a short order!
#交易策略误区
In chaotic market times, hold on tight! Focus on the iron eagle, the iron eagle is that golden thigh! Just cling to the legs of ambitious madmen!
$BTC